Newsletters 12/3/08 - 12/8/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nellys Greensheet

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->RATING 3 TULSA (-13½) over East Carolina
RATING 2 BALL STATE (-14½) over Buffalo
RATING 1 ALABAMA (+10) over Florida
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2008
UL-LAFAYETTE (-4½) Middle Tennessee St 6:00 PM
UL-Lafayette could have a significant edge on the ground in this
match-up, averaging over 170 more yards per game rushing, as ULL
is one of the top rushing teams in the nation. Both Sun Belt
squads are 5-6 on the season, so bowl eligibility is a possibility
though an actual bowl invite would be unlikely for the winner. Still
finishing .500 would be an accomplishment for either team as both
had losing records last season. The Ragin’ Cajuns rushed for 376
yards to win in Murfreesboro last season and UL-L has had success
as a favorite, while winning and covering in three of four home
games this season. The road team has actually won four of the last
five in this series and this could be a key revenge game for MTSU
after blowing a lead in last year’s game. These teams have finished
the season heading in opposite directions as MTSU has won three
straight games and UL-L has lost three in a row. The Blue Raiders
have a young team that has shown improvement and has been
playing better late in the year. MTSU BY 7
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2008
RUTGERS (-11½) Louisville 6:45 PM
The home team has won and covered each of the past three years
of this series, although Rutgers has always been the underdog until
this season. After an awful start to the season the Scarlet Knights
have now won five consecutive games, while Louisville has now
dropped four in a row S/U and ATS. Louisville should have a rushing
edge in this match-up as the Cardinals have been much more
productive on the ground this season and also feature strong
numbers against the run but Rutgers should have success in the air.
Rutgers is allowing just 18 points per game and this is a team that
has a great deal of momentum behind a veteran squad closing out
the season. Louisville can reach 6-6 with a win but the Cardinals
may be emotionally spent after playing the top three teams in the
Big East the last three games. Last season Rutgers led by 18 in the
second half against Louisville but lost by three so this will be a key
game for the coaching staff and the Knights will enter the
postseason as a dangerous bowl team. RUTGERS BY 17
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2008
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP at Detroit, MI
Ball State (-14½) Buffalo 7:00 PM
The Cardinals look to finish off a historic undefeated season with the
MAC title and winning this game would give the Cardinals a return
trip to Detroit for the Motor City Bowl, an unfortunate underwhelming
reward given the current bowl system and tie-ins. The schedule has
not justified a higher ranking for Ball State but they have been an
impressive team, coming up big late in the year against the top
competition in the conference. Buffalo has been a great story this
season and winning five in row late in the year earned this spot, as
champion of the much weaker MAC East division. The Bulls played
a stronger overall schedule this season but statistically these teams
are not close. Buffalo averages fewer yards per game than the
defense allows while Ball State is out-scoring opponents by nearly
three touchdowns per game on average. Last season Ball State
beat Buffalo 49-14, out-gaining the Bulls 507-219. This will be a
neutral site game but the Cardinals have won on the road in
primetime games in two of their final three games. This Ball State
team also gained some valuable experience playing in a bowl game
last season so the extra attention of a championship game should
not be a problem. BALL STATE BY 21
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2008
Navy (-11) Army at Philadelphia, PA 11:00 AM
The Midshipmen have won six of the last eight games and are
locked into a bowl game. This rivalry game has been won by Navy
six consecutive years and Navy is 9-2 ATS in the last eleven
meetings. Last year Navy dominated with a 38-3 victory although the
offense had just 294 yards. Navy is the top rushing team in the
nation, averaging 292 yards per game but the defense has allowed
more yards than the offense has gained on the season despite the
7-4 record. Army is also one of the top rushing teams in the nation
and the defense has allowed fewer yards and points on the year.
The difference between these teams has been turnovers as Navy
owns one of the top turnover margins in the nation, while Army is
nearly the nation’s worst in that category. Army has lost three games
in a row and four of the last five but each of the last five opponents
will be in a bowl game. The statis tics do not always add up for Navy
but this team finds ways to win and controls the line of scrimmage.
Navy has dominated this series recently and should deliver another
win this week to close out another fine season. NAVY BY 17
CONNECTICUT (-2) Pittsburgh 11:00 AM
The Huskies have quietly gone 7-4 and two conference losses came
by a combined margin of just six points. Connecticut has the top
defensive numbers in the Big East, allowing only 286 yards per
game. Pittsburgh has had a strong season at 8-3 but the Panthers
have still been a bit of a disappointment. Statistically Pittsburgh
looks like a very mediocre team despite several talented skill players
on the roster and Pittsburgh has caught some breaks with four wins
by less than a touchdown. Connecticut has had a lot of time to
prepare for this game and the Huskies have beat Pittsburgh each of
the last two years, last year benefiting from turnovers. After last
week’s big win over West Virginia this could be a tough follow-up for
the Panthers in a historically difficult venue. The Panthers are not in
position to significantly upgrade its bowl status and this will be a
bigger game for Connecticut. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road in
recent years and has never won in this stadium. Connecticut is a
continuously underrated team and the Huskies defense should
perform well this week. CONNECTICUT BY 7
WEST VIRGINIA (-7) South Florida 2:30 PM
This game was expected to be for the Big East title as these teams
were clear front-runners in early season projections. Both teams will
play in bowl games but both have to be considered among the most
disappointing teams in the nation. West Virginia’s loss last week
ended any remote conference title hopes and the offense has
averaged nearly 100 yards less per game versus last season’s
team. South Florida has won the last two meetings including last
season against then #5 and undefeated West Virginia. The Bulls
were severely out-gained in that game but USF has had success in
slowing down the run, allowing just 93 yards per game on the
ground this season. Turnovers have been an Achilles Heel for the
Bulls as statistically South Florida appears to have one of the best
defenses in the nation as well as a productive balanced offense.
West Virginia is allowing just 16 points per game but the defense
has allowed considerably more yards on the year. South Florida has
been an inconsistent team that has not played well in recent weeks
so it is hard to expect the Bulls to win on the road. WV BY 13
CALIFORNIA (-33½) Washington 2:00 PM
The misery can finally end for Washington but there has to be some
motivation to avoid the winless season. California can not really
improve its bowl stock with a win but this actually is a revenge game
after losing 37-23 last season in Seattle. Cal is 6-0 S/U and ATS this
season and avoiding another poor finish to the season should be a
priority for the Bears. Cal has been a great ATS team this season at
8-3 while Washington has only covered once all season long. The
California offense has not been exceptionally productive this
season, averaging significantly less yardage per game than any of
the past five seasons. The Washington defense has been horrible
this season, allowing 37 points per game but California may not
have enough production to cover such a huge spot. No one feels
great about backing a winless team but the value is there and Cal
has averaged just 32 points per game while surrendering at least 14
points in seven straight games. CAL BY 24
Usc (-30) UCLA 3:30 PM
Everything has fallen together for USC and the Trojans still have an
outside shot at finding the BCS championship game but at worst can
lock up a Rose Bowl spot with a win this week. UCLA has
historically been an incredible home underdog and this situation is
eerily similar to 2006 when USC had lost to only Oregon State
before being upset against UCLA at the end of the year and getting
knocked out of the BCS championship picture. USC owns incredibly
dominant numbers on defense, allowing just fewer than eight points
per game and only 210 yards per game. UCLA has solid defensive
numbers but offense has struggled this season. The Bruins have
one of the worst turnover margins in the nation but the road team
has won each of the last three meetings. Last season USC won just
24-7 but completely dominated the yardage numbers. USC is just 2-
7 ATS in the last nine meetings on the road in this series and being
in a position where the Trojans are at the mercy of voters makes for
some distractions this week. USC BY 21
ARIZONA (-10½) Arizona State 7:00 PM
The Sun Devils have been one of the most disappointing teams in
the nation as many expected this team to contend for the Pac-10
title. The Wildcats have been accustomed to disappointing seasons
but this year Arizona broke through to reach bowl eligibility for the
first time since 1998. Arizona is averaging 37 points scored per
game but those numbers are a bit inflated based on a few blowout
wins. The Wildcats have now lost three of the last four games and
only one win this season came against a winning team. Arizona
State has plenty to play for as a three-game win streak quietly has
the Sun Devils back in the mix for a possible bowl game. The Sun
Devil defense has allowed just 28 points in the last three games and
ASU has won each of the last three meetings in this series by
narrow margins. There is more at stake for Arizona State and given
the close recent history of this series the underdog looks promising
as these teams have had very similar results. ASU BY 3
Cincinnati (-7½) HAWAII 10:30 PM
The Bearcats have locked up the Big East title and a trip to the BCS.
This game is meaningless for Cincinnati and it is tough to envision a
focused effort coming off such a great moment for the program,
particularly taking the long trip to Hawaii. The Warriors have won the
games they needed to make a bowl appearance and Hawaii has
now won six of the last eight games while scoring over 33 points per
game over the last five weeks. Hawaii has won five of the last seven
home finales, typically playing major conference teams at the end of
the year. Hawaii is also 15-7 in the last 22 games as home
underdogs. Cincinnati lacks a great running game so this will not be
a match-up where the Bearcats can just pound away and expect to
be successful. Cincinnati has won five games by eight points or
fewer so blowouts have not been common. CINCY BY 6
TROY (-11) Arkansas State 6:00 PM
Troy can lock up the Sun Belt title with a win this week but this is a
big game for Arkansas State as well. The Red Wolves can force a
potential three-way tie for the Sun Belt title or even win the
conference outright if UL-Lafayette should lose earlier in the week.
Troy shutout Arkansas State last season but historically has
struggled in this series. Arkansas State owns superior rushing
numbers and the defensive statistics are pretty close between these
teams. Arkansas State has just had 12 turnovers on the season, one
of the lowest numbers in the nation and a strong rushing team that
takes care of the ball could have upset potential. Arkansas State can
overcome a tough home field and play well. TROY BY 4
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-7) W. Kentucky 6:00 PM
Last week’s rivalry game loss will likely take a toll for the Panthers
this week. FIU lost 57-50 in overtime against Florida Atlantic in a
game where the Panthers blew a 14-point lead in the final three
minutes. This is the final transition game for Western Kentucky as
the Hilltoppers will be a full Sun Belt member next season. Western
Kentucky has not been able to beat any current Sun Belt teams this
season but most games have been competitive as defense has
been solid. Florida International has four wins on the season but the
Panthers are in a tough spot this week and can no longer reach
.500. These teams played a very close game in 2005 and this may
be Western’s best shot for a FBS win. FIU BY 10
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP at Tulsa, OK
TULSA (-13½) East Carolina 11:00 AM
It was a struggle but Tulsa locked up a 7-1 conference record and
hosts the championship game by virtue of the head-to-head win over
Rice. These teams did not meet in the regular season but last
season Tulsa beat ECU 31-10. Tulsa played in this game last
season but lost and this will be a great opportunity, playing at home
where the Golden Hurricane has dominated this season. Tulsa has
outscored opponents 363-137 in six home games this season,
covering in all five lined games. East Carolina grabbed headlines
early in the year but in reality won this division by default as no other
team finished above .500 in conference play. The Pirates won four
conference games by just four points or less including two in OT, so
the 8-4 record could easily have been worse. The East Carolina
offense is averaging just 23 points per game and although the
defense has the best numbers in C-USA the Pirates have been
vulnerable against strong passing teams. TULSA BY 21
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP at Tampa, FL
Virginia Tech (PK) Boston College 3:00 PM
These teams met last season in the ACC championship and
although neither appears to be as strong as last season both
managed to pull out division wins through tie-breakers in the tightly
packed ACC. Boston College won the regular season meeting 28-23
despite a big edge on the ground for the Hokies. Despite losing its
QB and facing a tough closing schedule BC rallied off four
consecutive wins. It is no coincidence that the two championship
representatives feature the top two defenses in the ACC. Virginia
Tech has not topped 23 points scored in any of the last six games
and it will be tough for the Hokies to put up big numbers in this
match-up as the BC rush defense is among the best in the nation.
Boston College has had great success in this series and the Hokies
have not been strong favorites. Look for BC to find a way to win and
take the championship this season. BC BY 3
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP at Atlanta, GA
Florida (-10) Alabama 3:00 PM
Both teams continue to cruise as Alabama completed an undefeated
regular season and Florida has just a single one-point loss on the
resume. Florida owns the top turnover margin in the nation which
has helped pad leads in several games and the Gators have
outscored opponents by an average of 24 points per game. The
Alabama defense has been dominant this season, allowing just 11½
points per game and less than 250 yards per game. The Alabama
offense is not as flashy and does not put up huge numbers , but the
Tide take great care of the ball and dominate the line of scrimmage.
The winner of this game will surely make a trip to the BCS
championship game and give the SEC a shot at a third consecutive
title. The Gators are heavy favorites here based the big numbers
and the incredible ATS record but Alabama has yet to be beaten
and the Tide should not be doubted here. Alabama has covered in
each of the last five meetings and has proven that they can win
close games with several narrow wins this season. ALABAMA BY 3
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP at Kansas City, MO
Oklahoma (-15½) Missouri 7:00 PM
The Tigers were a bit flat last week having already clinched this spot
and having played in this stadium last week could be an advantage
along with the already more favorable location. Missouri lost last
week despite an over 3-to-1 rushing advantage as early turnovers
dug a hole and a late Kansas rally provided the stunning upset late.
There will be significant distractions for Oklahoma as many will
question whether or not they deserve to be in this game and the
assumption that the Big 12 South winner will go to the BCS title
game could be dangerous as Missouri can score points in a hurry.
Oklahoma’s offense scored at will last week but the defense allowed
41 points as OSU went down the field with ease until a few late
turnovers created a misleading final margin. As much as Missouri’s
defense has been maligned the unit has better scoring defense
numbers than Oklahoma and the Sooners padded its stats playing
1-11 FCS Chattanooga and 0-11 Washington. Oklahoma allowed
over 30 points per game in Big 12 play and Missouri will score points
in this match-up. The Sooners should pull away but OU has a long
recent history of choking in these types of games. OU BY 10

RATING 5 NEW ENGLAND (-4½) over Seattle
RATING 4 DALLAS (+3) over Pittsburgh
RATING 3 ATLANTA (+3) over New Orleans
RATING 2 NY GIANTS (-9) over Philadelphia
RATING 1 KANSAS CITY (+9) over Denver
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4, 2008
SAN DIEGO (-10) Oakland (43½) 7:15 PM
The Chargers have now lost five of the past six games with only a onepoint
win over Kansas City mixed in. In fairness the Chargers have
played close against quality teams in that span and have not lost by
double-digits in any game all season. San Diego has not been able to
close out games with several leads being taken away in the closing
minutes. The Chargers have covered in ten of the last eleven against
Oakland however and the Raiders offense has really struggled to
consistently score points. CHARGERS BY 13
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2008
INDIANAPOLIS (-13½) Cincinnati (42½) 12:00 PM
The Bengals have really struggled on offense in recent weeks, scoring
just 26 points in the last three games. Those games came against three
of the best defenses in the league however and the Bengals might have
more success against the Colts. Indianapolis has won five consecutive
games but the largest margin of victory was just six points. The Colts
have covered in just one of five home games this season and the
Bengals might be able to hang around this week. COLTS BY 7
CHICAGO (NL) Jacksonville 12:00 PM
The Jaguars face a short week coming off Monday ’s game and the
Bears face some pressure, falling a game back in the NFC North
standings after last week’s loss. Chicago has had several great
defensive games and several lousy efforts so it is hard to figure which
team will show up. Cold weather in Chicago could be a problem for the
Jaguars and the Bears need this win more. BEARS BY 7
GREEN BAY (NL) Houston 12:00 PM
The Packers face long odds in the NFC North despite going 13-3 last
season for a commanding division win. Many point to the QB change as
the difference but the defense has not been as strong and the running
game that got on a roll late last year has not shown up outside of a few
games. The Texans are a better team than the record indicates but a
tough schedule dug an early hole and the defense has not been able to
get key stops. The Packers should have an edge in this match-up and
can stay alive in the division race. PACKERS BY 7
TENNESSEE (-13½) Cleveland (37½) 12:00 PM
The Browns appear to be down to QB Dorsey and a rough season
continues in Cleveland with another narrow loss. The Titans bounced
back in a big way last week to crush Detroit but that was the first doubledigit
win in the last five weeks for Tennessee. This line will be inflated
with the QB situation but the Cleveland defense has shown some
improvement in recent weeks and Tennessee has been held to 24 or
fewer points in four of the last five. TITANS BY 10
Minnesota (-9½) DETROIT 12:00 PM
Although the Vikings have a lot of talented players they have the feel of
a team that could lose to a 0-12 team. Minnesota has had horrible
numbers in recent years as a road favorite and Minnesota has caught
good fortune in several wins this season. Detroit is a risky team to back
but this will be the best opportunity to break the streak and Lions
probably should have beat Minnesota when the teams met earlier this
season, hurt significantly by a questionable late penalty. VIKINGS BY 3
BALTIMORE (NL) Washington 7:15 PM
The Ravens continue to roll with another impressive win last week.
Baltimore has won and covered in four of five home games this season.
Washington has lost three of the last four games to fall out of the playoff
picture this week and with three of the last four on the road the Redskins
appear to be likely to miss out. The Baltimore defense has its swagger
back, averaging just 253 yards allowed per game with equally
impressive numbers against the run and pass but Baltimore’s offense
has struggled. The impressive numbers in recent weeks were set-up by
the defense and Washington needs to win this game. REDSKINS BY 4
NEW YORK GIANTS (-9) Philadelphia (44½) 12:00 PM
The Eagles stayed alive with a huge Thanksgiving win last week and this
will be the make-or-break game for the Philadelphia season. New York
won the first meeting by just five points but the game was not as close
as the final outcome. Although Philadelphia has had a few extra days to
ready for this game the Eagles have not proven reliable and the
mistakes on offense and the lack of a short-yardage running game has
been a major problem. New York continues to dominate, with seven
consecutive wins and covers in the last seven weeks. GIANTS BY 14
NEW ORLEANS (-3) Atlanta (52½) 12:00 PM
The Saints have the most productive offense in the NFL but New
Orleans becomes one-dimensional quickly and Atlanta dominated the
Saints the first time these teams met, just a month ago. The Saints have
not had great success at home in recent years and New Orleans
continues to be an overvalued team on the big score potential. The
Saints were lucky to cover last week and recent wins over Green Bay
and San Diego are not as impressive as once thought. FALCONS BY 3
New York Jets (-4) SAN FRANCISCO (44½) 3:05 PM
The Jets face long travel but after an ugly performance last week this
becomes a critical game for New York. San Francisco surprised the Bills
last week but ten points and a significant yardage disadvantage in the
game is not encouraging although QB Hill has managed to avoid killer
turnovers for the most part since taking over. New York is very good at
stopping the run and the Jets should be able to deliver despite facing
cross country travel. JETS BY 7
Buffalo (-1) Miami (42½) @Toronto, Canada 3:05 PM
The Bills lost QB Edwards last week and managed just three points on
350 yards. Buffalo is not a team that can win unless it creates some
scoring on defense or special teams. Miami pulled out another narrow
win over a losing team but the bottom line is that the Dolphins are
delivering victories and the schedule has set-up nicely for a strong finish.
Miami should have a more favorable situation than if this game was in
Buffalo and last week’s loss was emotionally crippling for a Bills team
that is now almost officially eliminated. DOLPHINS BY 3
DENVER (-9) Kansas City (47) 3:05 PM
The Broncos put up big numbers and capitalized on turnovers last week
for a huge win that essentially has locked up the division title. The
Broncos have been far from an impressive team however and the recent
records at home are incredibly bad with just two covers in the last 17 as
home favorites. Kansas City has shown some promise on offense in
recent weeks and the Chiefs beat Denver earlier this season. The
Broncos make too many mistakes and have too poor of a defense to
trust as a significant favorite. BRONCOS BY 3
ARIZONA (-13½) St. Louis (48½) 3:15 PM
The Cardinals have become complacent with the division locked up but
after back-to-back ugly losses against NFC East teams Arizona needs to
deliver a strong outing to get some momentum back. The Cardinals beat
the Rams badly a few weeks back but St. Louis should have a more
complete squad with key players back in action. If turnovers are avoided
the Rams can be a competitive team and Arizona has a history of poor
late season play when expectations grow. CARDS BY 7
PITTSBURGH (-3) Dallas (41½) 3:15 PM
The Cowboys can get back its status as an elite team with a win this
week but this is a critical game as the Cowboys would not be in the
playoffs if everything was settled right now. Pittsburgh delivered an
impressive win in a big game last week but Pittsburgh has not fared well
as a home favorite. The Dallas defense has stepped up in recent weeks
and the Steelers might get beat at their own game. COWBOYS BY 7
New England (-4½) SEATTLE (43) 3:05 PM
The Patriots knew QB Cassel would have some games like that but this
should be an opportunity for New England to get right back on track.
Seattle has not been competitive in many games this season and has
lost to two AFC East teams already this season. The great home field
edge has been lost in season that has gone wrong and New England
has not lost back-to-back games all year. PATRIOTS BY 14
MONDAY, DECEMBER 8, 2008
CAROLINA (-3) Tampa Bay (38) 7:35 PM
This is a huge game in the NFC South as the winner will have the inside
track to the playoffs and a likely #2 seed. Both teams needed late a late
rally last week but both teams continue to get the job done with solid
running games and good, opportunistic defense. The Panthers have not
lost at home this season and were soundly beat in Tampa Bay earlier
this year. Tampa Bay has struggled against mediocre teams despite the
four-game win streak and Carolina can take revenge. PANT HERS BY
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Football Dec. 3--8

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->College Key Selections
2--RUTGERS over Louisville 41-14
3--OKLAHOMA over Missouri 51-24
4--BALL STATE over Buffalo 45-20


THURSDAY
RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 14 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Five straight wins for Knights,
who are +68 pts ATS over that span, with a 181-70 pt edge, & Teel at 13 TDs in
last 4. Four straight losses for faltering Cards (14 TOs), losing their last RG by
28 pts ATS. Carpenter just 15/15 for the season. Revenge for LY's heartbreak.

FRIDAY
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Ford Field, Detroit
BALL STATE 45 - Buffalo 20 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- No questioning huge leaps UB
has taken under Gill. In off having 5-game run snapped. Willy: 22/5; Starks:
1,208 RYs; WR Roosevelt, etc. But perfect Cards own Bulls (Wise Points), &
have 506-125 RY edge last 2 gms. Davis (25/6); Lewis (1,570 RYs) do it again.

SATURDAY
Navy 27 - Army 24 - (12:00 - @ Philadelphia - CBS) -- Mids have had their way
with Cadets of late (2,126-572 RY edge last 6), but just 11 & 15 FDs for Navy
last 2 games, while allowing 230+ RYs in 3 of last 6 games, & ranking 70th on
"D". Army +80½ pts ATS last 8 games, with 1,106 RYs for Mooney last 7 tilts.
Pittsburgh 24 - CONNECTICUT 22 - (12:00 - ESPN2) -- Check Huskies' last 2
HGs: 26½ pt cover, & 19½ pt ATS loss. And have topped 168 RYs in just 1 of
last 6 games. Worth noting, as Pitt allowing <100 RYs in 3 of last 5 games.
Panthers at 32 ppg last 8, & McCoy in off career-high 183 RYs. To the wire.

WEST VIRGINIA 31 - South Florida 20 - (3:30 - ESPN2) -- First dog role for
Bulls in last 22 starts, & deservedly so, as they're averaging 14 ppg in last 3
outings, with Grothe just 15/12 for the year. Mounties were mauled LY, & in off
losing in final minute. Overland game is sporadic, but just can't pull SF lever.

CALIFORNIA 52 - Washington 7 - (3:00) -- Just 13, 11, 17 FDs for Bears in last
3 outings, but they are splendid at home (6-0 ATS lately). Check 7.6-3.3 ypr
edge over Stanford, which entered at 234 RYpg in previous 8 tilts. Swan song
for Willingham, as winless UW has allowed 40 ppg in its last 13 lined games.

SO CALIFORNIA 41 - Ucla 10 - (4:30 - ABC) -- No "O" TDs allowed by Bruins
in 34-9 loss to ArizSt. Entered that one off 260, 164, 216, 153 RY deficits in
previous 4 games. And Craft at 7/19 for the year. Won't compete here. USC
has 310-49 pt edge since its lone loss, & allowed just 4 FDs in wipeout of Irish.

ARIZONA 31 - Arizona State 10 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Yes, we know the series dog
has been "money", but Suns just can't move it. Managed 10 FDs, 21 RYs, &
122 TYs vs Ucla, & are at 62 RYpg eliminating Wash & WashSt. Rested &
balanced 'Cats own 26th best "D", & are averaging 38 ppg. Throw in revenge.

Cincinnati 41 - HAWAII 17 - (11:30) -- Cincy now BigEast champ, its first league
title since taking MissouriValley in 1964. Five straight wins, & in off 25-8 FD
edge. 'Bows off lackluster win over horrid WashSt, managing a 10-10 tie over
the last 3 quarters. C'mon! Can't run, & Alexander won't do much vs this "D".

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
TULSA 48 - East Carolina 24 - (12:00 - ESPN) -- Check resurgent Pirates' with
6 TDs in 53-21 blowout of Utep, after managing just 4 TDs in their previous 4
contests, & entered ranked 94th in rushing "O". Are premier RDs (14-4 ATS),
but note the 'Canes scoring 56, 56, 63, 77, 49, & 56 pts in covering their last 6
HGs. Check Johnson at 42 TD passes TY, & ECU has yet to cover on the road.

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Raymond James Stadium, Tampa
Virginia Tech 22 - Boston College 17 - (1:00 - ABC) -- These 2 meet for the
4th time in the last 2 years, with the Eagles taking both regular season games,
but the Hokies prevailing in LY's title match. Tech didn't manage an offensive TD
in their 1st meeting, & not the most explosive squad (#83 in scoring), but that "D"
still solid. BC also owns quality stop unit, but QB Davis iffy, & ditto Eagle run "O".

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP @ Georgia Dome, Atlanta
Florida 38 - Alabama 24 - (4:00 - CBS) -- Elite squads at the absolute top of
their games. Gators have a 344-78 pt edge in their 7 lined games since loss to
OleMiss: +140½ pts ATS. Check LW's 260-yd edge at FlaSt in monsoon type
weather. Try 346 & 317 RYs vs SoCaro & FlaSt, with Tebow at 25/2. Top ranked
Tide also smoking: 5-0 ATS, with a 159-37 pt edge, & #3 "D". Can't buck Gators.

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP @ Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Oklahoma 51 - Missouri 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Astounding! Only descriptive of
ongoing accomplishments of this Sooner squad. And incredible 59.5 ppg since
their loss to Texas, topping 60 pts their last 4 games. Bradford now 46/6, with
Okies ranking 19th in rushing. Pity Tigs, despite Daniel's 34/13 (75%), & 42 ppg
"O" in last 26 outings. But just 64 & 30 RYs in 2 of their 3 losses. Okies easily.

ADDED GAMES
Middle Tenn St 27 - LA-LAFAYETTE 17 TROY 35 - Arkansas St 17
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 38 - Western Kentucky 24
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pointwise Football Dec. 3--8


<!-- / icon and title -->
NFL Key Selections

3--ARIZONA over St Louis 45-13
3--NEW YORK JETS over San Francisco 34-20
4--NEW ENGLAND over Seattle 30-17
5--MINNESOTA over Detroit 34-13
5--KANSAS CITY (+) over Denver 20-23

THURSDAY
SAN DIEGO 23 - Oakland 20 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Chargers 3 back of Broncos, with
4 to play, so just about done. In off putrid home performance vs Falcons, in which
they managed only 201 yds, & 13 FDs. Now under 100 RYs in 6 of last 8 outings,
with 9 of their games decided by a TD or less. Third straight HG, but it means
little, especially in light of the fact that the visitor has covered the last 5 games
involving the Raiders, by 70½ pts ATS. And note Oakland covering its last RG by
30 pts. We know that Chargers are 10-1 ATS vs the Raiders, but call for change.

SUNDAY
INDIANAPOLIS 30 - Cincinnati 10 - (1:00) -- The NFL visitor has been golden
over the past month, but backing the anemic Bengals is asking too much. They
have a 1,206-645 yd deficit over the last 3 weeks, & are in off 11 & 6 FD efforts,
in 27-10 & 34-3 losses. And they've lost their last 2 RGs by a combined score
of 62-16. Indy has been no ball of fire, despite 5 straight wins, by 3, 4, 6, 3, 4
pts SU, with no offensive TDs, & just 14 FDs LW. But check 30 FDs in their
last HG. And Cincinnati is 6-12 ATS away off a SU loss of >13 pts. Colt call.

CHICAGO 24 - Jacksonville 23 - (1:00) -- So much for the "Monsters of the
Midway" label for the Bears' "D", as it has allowed 31 ppg in 5 of its last 6 tilts,
including Sunday's embarrassment at Minny. Just 10 FDs, with 3 INTs from
Orton. Same old story, regardless of who is over center. Thus, Chicago is one
back of the Vikes. Check a 27-26 ppg edge at home for the Bears this season,
which coincides with visitor success in J'Ville games: now on a 9-1 ATS streak.

GREEN BAY 34 - Houston 20 - (1:00) -- The Packers did just about everything
but win LW, as they dominated the Panthers, with 25-15 FD & 438-300 yd
edges, only to fall, 35-31. Check 24, 22, & 25 FDs for GreenBay over the past
3 weeks. And they did cover their previous 2 HGs by 21 & 30½ pts. They can't
afford another loss, & catching the Texans, not only off their Monday Nighter,
but in a division revenge sandwich, is nice. Pack is 21-11 as Dec host, while
McCarthy is 8-2 ATS vs <.500 non-division opponents. We'll give the 5½ pts.

TENNESSEE 24 - Cleveland 13 - (1:00) -- That's what we call a bounceback in
style. Check Titans' 292-23 RY edge, behind Johnson & White, as well as a
456-154 TY advantage vs the Lions. Have now held 14 of their last 16 foes
under 18 pts, & are +15 TOs for the season. Brownies are out of it, losing to
Indy, despite not allowing an offensive TD (fumble return in the 4th did 'em in).
But a solid "D" (13 ppg last 2 wks), & the dog is on a 9-0 ATS run in Cleveland
games. Titans are just 4-13 ATS off scoring >27 pts, thus a mild underdog call.

Minnesota 34 - DETROIT 13 - (1:00) -- An 0-18 season seems almost inevitable,
as far as the Lions are concerned. Have won just 1 of their last 20 games on
the field, & that in the '07 stretch, while hosting the 4-12 Chiefs. Their latest
futility was witnessed by the entire nation, in a franchise-worst 37-pt loss to the
Titans. Check allowing 34 ppg in their last 18 games. And also check Minny
averaging 27 pts in its last 6 RGs. Visitor now 9-0 ATS in Detroit games. Ditto.

BALTIMORE 20 - Washington 19 - (8:15 - NBC)) -- Loved it! Balt was our top
NFL play LW, & ensuing 34-3 rout was enjoyable (24-pt cover): edges of 20-6
in FDs, & 451-155 in yds. Now a 70-10 pt edge in Ravens' last 2 tilts, holding
8 foes below 14 pts. 'Skins couldn't stay with the Giants (who can?), but they
also own a quality "D", holding 19 foes below 21 pts since LY. And the visitor is
8-0-1 ATS in Washington games, by 79½ pts. 'Skins are 10-1 ATS as dogs, off
being held below 10 pts, & playing a foe off a SU win. Mildest of underdog call.

NEW YORK GIANTS 30 - Philadelphia 13 - (1:00) -- Superb display by McNabb
& Eagles in "must-win" setup vs Cards. Check 27-of-39 for 260 yds & 4/0 for
Donovan, in that 48-20 wipeout: 32-12 FD edge. Sure sweet after 6 TOs in
previous 6 quarters for McNabb. Giants continue to amaze. Now 16-2 ATS, &
15-1 SU. Averaging 34 ppg in their last 5 gms, with Eli at 539 PYs last 2 wks,
despite some personnel problems. Eagles are 0-7 ATS on division road off a
win, vs a foe off a pair of SU/ATS wins. And NY 21-7 ATS off DD division win.

NEW ORLEANS 34 - Atlanta 23 - (1:00) -- Falcons sure made a statement with
LW's rather easy win over the Chargers (348-201 yd edge), allowing just 13
FDs. Check Ryan at 13/7, & Turner at 237 RYs the past 2 weeks. Staying one
back of the Bucs & Panthers, so no letup. But before that win over slipping
SanDiego, Atlanta had allowed 28 ppg in 7 of their prior 8 RGs. So note that the
Saints, who are in a definite "must-win" setup, are averaging 36 ppg in their last
4 HGs, & covered their last 2 hosters by 24 & 21 pts. Brees leads revenge win.

New York Jets 34 - SAN FRANCISCO 20 - (4:05) -- Brett returns to the scene of
his '97 Super Bowl win, and it comes at just the right time, as NY in off shocker
of a setback, hosting the Broncos (25 pts, ATS). That loss snapped a 5-game
NY run, including road upsets of the Bills, Pats, & Titans. And even in that loss
to Denver, note Jones with 138 RYs (8.6 ypr). So, the Niners stand in the way
of the bounceback, & that assignment is hairy, to say the least. Check a deficit
of 350-195 yds in SF upset of the Bills, & a 30.5 ppg "D" in previous 8 outings.

BUFFALO 24 - Miami 23 - (4:04 - @ Toronto) -- Bills came from 54 pts to 3 in a
week. That's right, just a single FG vs SanFran's previously 28 ppg defense,
despite nearly a 100-yd overland edge, with Lynch at 134 yds (8.4 ypr). But
Edwards continues to struggle (10/10 for the season). Fish barely snuck by
the woeful Rams, managing a mere 16 FDs vs StLouis' 30th ranked "D". But
Miami didn't allow an offensive TD. Thus the dog is now 10-0 ATS in Dolphin
games by 135½ pts. Bills are 8-1 ATS in series, but that miss came this year.

DENVER 23 - Kansas City 20 - (4:05) -- Visitor, visitor, visitor. Only way to go
with these 2, at the moment. Broncos in off splendid win over the Jets (100-yd
edge), behind Cutler & Hillis, with that pushing the recent road edge to 5-0 ATS
in Denver games by 85 pts. So, Denver has a 3-game lead over the Chargers,
while KC enters on a 2-19 SU run. However, the Chiefs, who were our top NFL
Red Sheet play LW, have covered their last 3 RGs by 10, 14, & 10 pts, with the
visitor on a 16-6 ATS run in KC tilts. Denver 1-11 ATS in division off upset win.

ARIZONA 45- St Louis 13 - (4:15) -- Not the best spot for the Rams, who catch
the seething Cards off losses to the Giants & Eagles, managing just 23 & 45
RYs, with 4 INTs from Warner. So, StLouis is 0-for-2, in trying to clinch its
division. Enter the Rams, who have dropped 6 straight, with a 159-47 pt deficit
in their last 5 games, & who have dropped their last 3 division RGs by similar
scores of 48-19, 37-13, & 35-16. Bulger just 7/11 for the season. Arizona is
still at 32 ppg in its last 19 contests, & should take no prisoners in this clincher.

PITTSBURGH 26 - Dallas 20 - (4:15) -- Return of Romo doing wonders for the
'Boys, who have posted 35 & 34 pt totals the past 2 wks, after failing to top 14
pts in their previous 4 contests. Romo? Try 6/1. But also realize that it came
vs the Niners & Seahawks (combined 6-18 record). A bit tougher this time
around, as the Steelers in off a run of 30 unanswered pts in 33-10 rout of the
Pats. Have held 8 foes under 18 pts, & have a 467-yd edge in their last 3 tilts.
Pitt 25-11 ATS as a Dec HF, & Dallas a 2-11 RD vs an AFC opponent off a win.

New England 30 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Five turnovers (4 by Cassel) for the
normally efficient Pats in 33-10 drubbing at the hands of the Steelers. But they
have been masterful in regrouping, as they've covered all 4 previous games
following losses, including 31-pt & 21-pt covers in 2 of those 4. And check 30
FDs & 530 yds in their last RG. The Seahawks continue among the dregs, &
now stand at an unfathomable 2-10. Nary a TD at Dallas, with Hasselbeck at 6
INTs over the last 3 weeks. Pats are 11-1 ATS vs the NFC West. And another.

MONDAY
CAROLINA 20 - Tampa Bay 10 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- These 2 are tied atop the NFC
South. Panthers in off clipping Green Bay, 35-31, despite 25-15 FD & 438-300 yd
deficits. Check a career-high 4 TDs for DeAngelo in that one, & Delhomme is
finally cranking it up (33-of-52 last 2 games). Chalk is still 7-2-1 ATS in Carolina
games. Bucs have managed just 15 & 11 FDs the past 2 wks, but have won 4
straight, & have held 6 of 11 foes under 17 pts. Carolina has a 28-13 ppg edge at
home this year, & Tampa is 9-18 ATS on the Dec road. Yet another revenge call.
<!-- message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sweep

4* Florida 41-17
3* Tulsa 47-20
2* Troy 34-17

Underdog, Pittsburg +3 27-17

4* Arizona 41-17
3* New England 30-14
2* 49's + 23 (+) - 24
2* Tenn. 27-3

3* Browns U37
3* Eagles U44
3* Rams O49
2* Vikings O41
2* Cowboys U41
<!-- / message -->

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS

* - Denotes Home Team

RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

*11 *ARIZONA over St. Louis
Late Score Forecast:
*ARIZONA 38 - St. Louis 13
(Sunday, December 7)

CKO scouts do not expect the Cardinals to be derailed a third straight game as they try to lock up their first
divisional title in 33 years! With Arizona superior to the Rams at nearly every position, look for the best the
Cardinals have after back-to-back losses vs. the NYG and at Philly on Thanksgiving. Insiders report the Arizona
players are determined to keep on winning after this week until they have secured a home playoff game at their
noisy new University of Phoenix Stadium.

*10 *NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta
Late Score Forecast:
*NEW ORLEANS 34 - Atlanta 20
(Sunday, December 7)

Do or die for New Orleans to keep alive its flickering playoff hopes. So must expect the prolific Drew Brees to outduel Atlanta rookie Matt Ryan in the latter’s first appearance in the Superdome, where the Saints are 4-1 vs. the spread TY. Reggie Bush got some of the kinks out in last week’s Saints’ loss in rainy Tampa Bay. Look for his
speed to be more of a factor this week.

TOTALS: OVER (48) in the Kansas City-Denver game—Chiefs’ emerging offense eager to face soft Denver defense; Broncs’ Cutler and his receivers red hot.

NINE-RATED GAMES: EAST CAROLINA (+13) at Tulsa (C-USA Championship Game)—Pirates 13-3 as a road dog L3+Ys; have the sr. QBs to repeatedly attack UT’s shaky defense.

 

[bjchapin1]

anyone got Gold Sheet or Power Sweep? Thanks much & good luck this week.

 

[BIGnose]

RED SHEET ONLINE
DEC 6, 2008, VOL 40, NO 15 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE
WEST VIRGINIA 34 - South Florida 13 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Line opened at WestVirginia minus 7, and is still
minus 7. Quite a comedown for the Bulls' following their recent exploits. They have averaged
only 14 ppg in their last 3 contests, covering exactly 3 times all season, with their
leader, QB Grothe throwing just 15 TDs for the year, with 12 interceptions. The Mountaineers
say good-bye to their brilliant QB Pat White, who is a solid 17/6 overhead, as well as a
threat to take it the distance any time. The WV "D" has held 6 of its last 8 foes to 12 ppg, &
has vivid memories of LY's embarrassment. Mounties wind up in style.
RATING: WEST VIRGINIA 89
ARIZONA 34 - Arizona State 10 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Line opened at Arizona minus 9½, and is now minus
10½. Even the most casual fan is aware of the huge spread edge of the visitor & underdog
in this series, with the guest standing at 13-3 ATS, & the dog 12-3. So, admittedly, bucking
such history is not normally our modus operandi. However, this SunDevil edition has been
a major disappointment, ranking 107th in rushing (ran only on woeful WashSt & Washington).
Not a single offensive TD in LW's win over Ucla. 'Cats just the opposite, averaging 38
ppg, with the 26th best "D" in the nation, & also have the revenge hammer.
RATING: ARIZONA 89
Oklahoma 55 - Missouri 24 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Line opened at Oklahoma minus 14, and is now minus 16½.
Large line move is hardly surprising, in light of the absolutely awesome accomplishments
that the Sooners have displayed of late. Check posting an astounding 59.5 ppg since their
loss to Texas, & topping 60 pts in their last 4 games. Sure, Bradford is somewhat hampered
with that thumb injury on his non-throwing hand, but was just brilliant in last week's demolition
of an outstanding OkieSt squad, & stands at 46/6 for the season. Tig QB Daniel also
superb, but has just 1 TD pass in his last 2 games vs the Okies. Romp!
RATING: OKLAHOMA 88
Florida 38 - Alabama 20 - (4:00 - CBS) -- Line opened at Florida minus 10½, and is now minus 9½. As we
wrote on Pointwise, these elite squads are at the absolute top of their games. Sure, bucking
the perfect & top-ranked Tide is a bit unsettling, especially considering the fact that
'Bama has a 32-7 ppg edge in its current 5-0 spread run. Also difficult to fathom the No 1
team in the land, as a 9½ pt dog. But similar to Oklahoma above, the Gators have been a
thing to behold, with their 344-78 pt edge in their 7 lined games since their only loss (1-pt),
covering all 7 by an average of 20 pts ATS! Tebow (25/2) the perfect leader.
RATING: FLORIDA 88
New England 33 - SEATTLE 17 - (4:05) -- Line opened at NewEngland minus 4½, and is still minus 4½.
That's right, as per usual, we're jumping on the Pats off a loss. Thus far, that simple system
has paid off 4 times this season, by 6, 31, 6½, & 21 pts. So why not again, vs a team which
cannot wait for this cursed season to draw to a close? A week ago, it all went wrong for the
Patriots, with 5 turnovers vs the best defense in the NFL (Pittsburgh), with 5 turnovers (4 by
QB Cassel, who had heretofore been a model of efficiency. No repeat vs Seattle's 28th
ranked "D". And no scoreboard match, with the NFL's 31st ranked "O".
RATING: NEW ENGLAND 88
NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - Philadelphia 13 - (1:00) -- Line opened at NewYork minus 8, and is still minus 8.
Not about to wind up the Red Sheet season without the defending champions, who have
been simply magnificent in continuing '07's brilliant late stretch. Sure, they have to go it
without Burress, which has to aid the defensive preparation of the always tough Eagles, but
NY just finds the way to succeed. Averaging 30-13 ppg edge at home, & on a 15-2 spread
run. Philly Thanksgiving Day rout of Arizona, just gives us added value.
RATING: NEW YORK GIANTS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Rutgers, California, Tulsa, BallSt - NFL: Arizona, NWOrleans, Jets, Carolina
LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Louisville (+13 to +10½); Okla (-14 to -16½); BallSt (-13
to -14½); Cal (-33½ to -35) - NFL: Cincy (+14½ to +13½); Cleve (+14½ to +13½); Balt (-5 to -6) - TIME
CHANGES: WVa/SoFla: 8:00 - KEY INJURIES: ArizSt DT Smith (stinger) ??; Army RB McMahand (leg)
probable; BC RB Haden (shoulder) ??; & DT Brace (foot) probable; UConn LB Lloyd (personal) doubtful; Fla
WR/RB Harvin (ankle) ??; & DT Antwine (knee) doubtful; Fla-Int'l RB Reams (shoulder) probable; Navy QB
Enhada (hamstring) probable; Okla QB Bradford (thumb) probable; & LB Box (knee) doubtful; Wash KR/WR
Polk (concussion) ??; WestVa LB Leonard (ankle) probable - NFL: QB Edwards (groin) ??; Carolina RB
Stewart (hamstring) ??; Cleve TE Winslow (ankle) doubtful; Cleve QBs Anderson (knee) & Quinn (finger)
out; Dallas RB Barber (toe) probable; & LB Ware (knee) probable; Denver CB Bailey (groin) probable; GBay
RB Grant (thumb) ??; Houston QB Schaub (knee) will start; NEng WR Welker (head) ??; NYGiant WR
Burress (leg) out; Giant RB Bradshaw (neck) ??; Washington RB Portis (knee) probable.....
NOTE: This is the final Red Sheet of the season, and as predicted, we stormed back in style, following last
year's rare losing effort. As you know the 4 previous seasons, we went 19-9, 18-9, 15-10, & 17-11 on
Superior Plays, and thus far, we stand at 19-10 on Superior Plays for the '08 Season. See you next year!

 

[sdf]

power sweep

http://www.zshare.net/download/522414587b0cc559/

 

[sdf]

anyone get CTO (confidential tip off). their 11* in cbb were great!

 

[BIGnose]

Gold Sheet
ARIZONA by 21 over Arizona State
&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;*ARIZONA 34 - Arizona State 13—Not convinced that ASU’s recent
uptick at the expense of Pac-10 court jesters U-Dub, Wazzu, & UCLA any sort
of “buy” signal for Sun Devils. Especially since QB Carpenter & HC Dennis
Erickson’s “O” labored for much of game vs. Cougs and barely gained 100
yards of total offense in last week’s misleading win over the Bruins when ASU
“D” scored all Sun Devil TDs. Now, ASU facing live ammunition for first time in
over a month in form of o.c. Sonny Dykes’ potent Arizona spread and sr. QB
Tuitama, looking to close home career with a bang. And though Sun Devils
need a win to get bowl-eligible, there’s plenty at stake for postseason-bound
Wildcats, too, especially for HC Mike Stoops, who might need a victory (which
would get Cats to 7-5) to secure his future employment in Tucson. CABLE
TV—ESPN
(07-ARIZ. ST. 20-Ariz. 17...S.18-17 S.40/97 U.19/44 U.28/52/2/272 S.20/37/0/247 S.1 U.1)
(07-ASU -7 20-17 06-Asu +3 28-14 05-ASU -9' 23-20...SR: Arizona 44-36-1)
HAWAII by 3 over Cincinnati
&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;*HAWAII 34 - Cincinnati 31—On fundamentals alone, would
probably be compelled to back bigger, faster Cincinnati squad that’s riding 5-
game win streak. But this might be the spot to play “psychology” angle—i.e.,
Bearcats wouldn’t be first team to treat a late-season sojourn to the islands as
a vacation instead of a business trip. And if Cincy, which has already secured
the Big East title and an Orange Bowl bid, isn’t fully focused, blossoming Hawaii
QB Greg Alexander (867 YP & 7 TDP in last 3 games) capable of leading
Warriors to small upset, especially with Bearcats’ star sr. CB Mike Mickens
sidelined by knee injury. CABLE TV—ESPN2 (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)

 

[BIGnose]

Gold Sheet NFLKEY RELEASES

NFL ANALYSIS
THE GOLD SHEET
MINNESOTA by 24 over Detroit
CAROLINA by 16 over Tampa Bay (Monday night)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Francisco game

&#56256;&#56459;Minnesota 37 - DETROIT 13—Lions’ last decent chance to notch a win
TY? Games at Indy, vs. N.O., and at G.B. follow. Too bad the Vikes are 12-1
SU the last 13 meetings. Maybe the commissioner will help by suspending
Minny’s “Williams Brothers” DTs and DE Jared Allen (11 sacks). But even that
might not be enough for Detroit, which is 0-6 vs. the spread at home TY and
must deal with Adrian Peterson (1131 YR) after giving up nearly 300 YR to the
Titans on Thanksgiving. Detroit “over” last five due to its overwhelmed defense
(only two ints. TY!).
(08-MINN. 12-Det. 10...M.18-8 M.31/135 D.24/100 M.18/33/1/257 D.12/21/0/112 M.2 D.1)
(07-DET. 20-Minn. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)
(07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)
(08-MINN. -13 12-10; 07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINN. -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 62-30-2)
&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;*CAROLINA 26 - Tampa Bay 10—Must expect home-loving Carolina
(6-1-2 vs. spread last 9 in Charlotte) to run the ball much better in rematch after
being out-rushed 189-99 in first meeting in T.B. Oct. 12. RBs DeAngelo
Williams (955 YR) & Jonathan Stewart (586) should own the day on the ground
in this battle for NFC South supremacy, and Steve Smith is the top WR on the
field. DE Julius Peppers (11 sacks) is back to being a primetime intimidator,
and the Bucs’ wideouts are not too scary vs. Panthers’ experienced press
coverage. CABLE TV—ESPN
(08-T. BAY 27-Car. 3...T.17-14 T.37/142 C.20/40 C.20/39/3/242 T.15/20/0/173 T.0 C.0)
(07-T. Bay 20-CAR. 7...T.22-13 T.42/189 C.23/99 T.15/25/0/176 C.19/41/1/137 T.1 C.1)
(07-Car. 31-T. BAY 23...C.20-17 C.37/180 T.26/107 T.21/28/1/196 C.15/24/1/169 C.1 T.0)
(08-T. BAY -1' 27-3; 07-T. Bay +3 20-7, Carolina -3 31-23...SR: Carolina 9-7)
&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;&#56256;&#56459;OVER THE TOTAL SAN FRANCISCO 28 - N.Y. Jets 26—Niners now
a respectable 2-3 SU & 3-2 vs. the spread under Mike Singletary, and the Jets’
defense was exposed a bit last week by the Broncs. That N.Y. unit can play
better, but Brett Favre not helping matters with his 14 interceptions. S.F.’s
secondary among the more experienced in the league. Will take note, however,
that 49ers are “over” 4 of the 5 games under Singletary; Jets “over” last six TY!
(04-NY JETS -10 22-14...SR: San Francisco 8-2)

 

[BuffaloSabre]

Anyone with Lawrence's Playbook? Thanks!

 

[BIGnose]

Playbook
5 BEST BET
GREEN BAY over Houston by 17
Now here’s a cold weather site we can sink our teeth into. There’s
nothing like the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to get the juices
fl owing. Much like Minnesota’s ‘must-win’ game against the Bears
last week, Green Bay fi ts the mold today. At 5-7 on the season, it’s
suddenly win or stay home time for the Packers. Enter Houston, fresh
off its climate-controlled Monday night division revenge win over
the Jaguars. With that we turn to our trusty database for just the
numbers that fi t this game like an abacus. It seems that since 1980
the Cheeseheads use their home environment to a major advantage
this time of the year where they are 33-6 SU and 25-13-1 ATS as home
favorites in December, including 18-4 ATS when hosting an opponent
off a win! They are also 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS at Vince’s place from
Game Ten out when playing off a SU favorite loss. Couple that with
the Texans’ 2-15 SU and 3-14 ATS mark on the road off a win in their
history, including 0-5 SU and ATS against .500 or less opposition, and
you can understand our craving for extra cheese. As you please.


Monday, December 8th
3 BEST BET
Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 3
It’s not easy building a case to fade the best team in the league but
we’re doing just that here with the Eagles today. After getting off
the .500 hump with an impressive win over the Cardinals Thanksgiving
evening (a 5* Playbook Best Bet), Andy Reid’s crew will look to avenge
a 36-31 home loss suffered a month ago. We’ve lauded Reid’s success in
division revenge on these pages. Simply put he’s in a class by himself in
these games, especially on the road where the Eagles are 10-4 SU and
12-2 ATS when avenging a division loss under Reid, including 7-0 SU
and ATS the last seven games! Tie that into the fact that teams riding a
7-game exact win streak who have covered the spread in each of their
last 3 games are just 2-10-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more points and
just like that we have the makings of a live dog. No Big Blue here. Just
a nice and natural straight-up win for a hungry puppy. Eagles soar!
Philadelphia over NY GIANTS by 3
4 BEST BET
CAROLINA over Tampa Bay by 14
To say life at home is sweet for residents of the NFC South Division this
season would be an understatement. That’s confi rmed by a staggering
21-2 SU and 16-6-1 ATS mark in 2008, including 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in
division duke-outs. That sets the table for tonight’s play… that and
our ever reliable PROVE IT ALL NIGHT Monday Night theory from
Marc Lawrence. The Bucs have been hot since the insertion of QB Jeff
Garcia, for sure. But they are just 1-10 ATS in December with a .500 or
greater record when coming in off a division game. Couple that with
the Panthers’ 21-2 ATS mark at home in SU division victories in their
franchise history and we have the makings of another big play from
the Boss. As he says, “If you want it, you take it, you pay the price…”

 

[BIGnose]

CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL RELEASES FOR THE WEEK OF DECEMBER 7-13, 2008
Friday,
Dec. 5
Saturday,
Dec. 6
Tuesday,
Dec. 9
Wednesday,
Dec. 10
*ORLANDO over Oklahoma City (NBA)...Orlando has tortured Oklahoma City/Seattle the last few years, winning 6 straight and covering
7 of last 9 meetings against the Thunder/Sonics. Magic love to beat up on bad teams at home, as Magic have covered 12 of last 18 hosting
“C” teams at Amway Arena. After dropping its first two games, Orlando has been on a tear, winning 13 of 15 prior to facing Boston
Monday night. Among those wins was a 109-92 bashing at OKC in which Dwight Howard had 30 points and 19 rebounds. Magic 9-2
last 11 laying more than 9 points. *ORLANDO 118 - Oklahoma City 93 RATING - 10
DEPAUL over *Northwestern (Day Game)...Big East sources report potential breakthrough at DePaul, with last year’s frosh stars 6-5
Tucker (20.8 ppg) & 6-10 Koshwal (12.2 ppg & 12.3 rpg!) now ready to dominate as sophs. And though NU HC Carmody has added some
much-needed size to Wildcat roster after team was outboarded more than 10 rpg LY, the muscular Koshwal will prove a load vs. thinner
NU counterparts in this Chicagoland battle. Blue Demon HC Wainwright also pleased that heady RS frosh G Bizoukas (sidelined by mono
LY) now available for backcourt depth behind vet starters Currie and Walker.
DEPAUL 64 - *Northwestern 56 RATING - 10
DELAWARE over *Old Dominion (Day Game)...Several longtime TGS Colonial scouts are predicting that Delaware is a darkhorse capable
of emerging from crowded middle of league to challenge for conference title. High-scoring soph G Alphonso Dawson (19 ppg) &
versatile 6-6 sr. swingman Marc Egerson (18 ppg & 12 rpg; originally at Georgetown) one of loop’s most dynamic duos, and speedy St.
Joe’s transfer Jawan Carter (18 ppg) a new weapon at disposal of composed veteran Blue Hen PG Brian Johnson (5.2 apg). U-Dee
bested ODU in double OT at Newark last season, and believe these evenly-matched foes will battle to wire once again.
DELAWARE 77 - *Old Dominion 75 RATING - 11
BOSTON COLLEGE over *Massachusetts...After 7-game series win streak was snapped in LY’s 83-80 loss vs. cross-state rival UMass,
favor payback-minded BC, showing LY’s disappointing 14-17 campaign was an aberration with UAB upset in NIT Final Round Nov. 28.
Eagles scintillating scorer/creator Rice (18 ppg, 5 apg) can feed ball to two reliable frontline scorers in sturdy 6-8 Vermont transfer
Trapani (14 ppg, 6 rpg) & smooth 6-6 soph Raji (12 ppg, 6 rpg). Mistake-prone 1-4 Minutemen (29 TOs in Wisc.-Milwaukee loss Nov. 29)
not easily adjusting to new HC Kellogg’s dribble-drive motion offense, and transition defense needs work (yielding 76 ppg).
BOSTON COLLEGE 82 - *Massachusetts 72 RATING - 11
*IOWA STATE over Drake..Long-time Midwest sources report ISU itching for rematch ever since LY’s nightmarish 79-44 blowout at
Drake, the most lopsided defeat in the 167-game series. Cyclones own a terrific PG duo in industrious 6-4 soph Garrett & 6-1 sr. Peterson
(combined 10 apg), while go-to defender, 6-3 sr. G Haluska, hounds Bulldogs primary threat G Young (19 ppg). ISU’s agile 6-10 soph C
Brackins (16 ppg) is top post scorer on court. And HC McDermott’s deep bench, featuring prized 6-3 true frosh Eikmeier (9 ppg, 48%
treys), helps wear down semi-rebuilding Drake (1st true road tilt here) playing its 4th game in 6 days.
*IOWA STATE 78 - Drake 67 RATING - 10
GONZAGA over *Washington State...The circumstances are a bit different in this hot regional rivalry than a year ago, when moreexperienced
Wazzu prevailed in a hard-fought battle at Spokane. Now, Gonzaga the more-seasoned squad, while Cougs in transition
phase. And don’t be deceived by WSU’s early-season successes, as Cougs came up far short in first serious test of season vs. rugged
Pitt. Prefer more refined weaponry of Zags, now benefiting greatly by re-emergence of 6-11 sr. C Heytvelt (team-best 15 ppg), who can
neutralize main WSU interior threat Baynes.
GONZAGA 65 - *Washington State 53 RATING - 10

 

[Henryjames]

Anyone with Lawrence's Playbook? Thanks!

Marc Lawrence Playbook 12/3-12/8/zshare

http://www.zshare.net/download/521854357da0db9b/

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">THE SPORTS MEMO

MARTY OTTO
ALABAMA VS. FLORIDA -10 O/U 50.5
Recommendation: Over
Tim Tebow is a man of his word. After losing to Ole Miss the Gators’ QB told the media no team in the country would play harder than his team the rest of the season. I’d say he’s been true to his word. No one has come close to touching the Gators in recent weeks at 7-0 SU and ATS since the loss to the Rebels. The offense has posted 30 or more points in 10 straight games and has current streak of seven straight games with at least 42 points. Special teams have led to direct scores and the defense has forced plenty of turnovers leading to short fields and easy points. No reason to believe those trends will stop this week even against a good Alabama defense. Florida’s strength is in its speed and Urban Meyer will find a way to get his guys the ball away from Bama’s massive interior players. I’m projecting at least 35 points from the Gators meaning we only need 17 from Alabama to get this one up and over the total. That shouldn’t be an issue as the Tide feature a very strong ground game of their own and have scored at least 17 in every single game this year.



BRENT CROW
EAST CAROLINA AT TULSA -13.5
Recommendation: Tulsa
East Carolina got off to an impressive start this season, beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia. It seemed like the Pirates would dominate Conference USA, but for much of the conference season, it was a struggle. Injuries ravaged
the defense and the offense never really found a playmaker to help out quarterback Patrick Pinkney, who had turnover problems for much of the year. Before last week’s 53-21 home win over UTEP, the Pirates had scored just 52 points in their previous four games, all against bad C-USA defenses. They will face another one this week at Tulsa. The catch is the Golden Hurricane
have the best offense in the conference. That means ECU will more than likely be in a position of needing to trade scores. Tulsa has been nearly unstoppable at home over the past two years including a 5-0 SU and ATS mark this season. The scores of their home games were 56-14, 63-28, 77-35,49-19, and 56-7. I have no doubt that Tulsa will score 40 or more again this week against the young East Carolina defense. This will result in too much pressure for an inconsistent Pirates offense to produce. Lay the points.



ED CASH
CINCINNATI -7.5 AT HAWAII
Recommendation: Cincinnati
With neither team technically having anything to play for (bowl berths locked up) we’ll turn to the basic fundamentals and overall talent as a barometer
of what to expect. While Cincinnati is clearly the better team, it is the things they do best that has me looking their way this weekend. The Bearcats have one of the best pass defenses in the nation with a ball-hawking
secondary capable of multiple interceptions. The Hawaii pass game has been a mess all season and newly appointed signal caller Greg Alexander, though an upgrade, has done nothing more than feast on bad defenses. When Hawaii does face a decent defense, the numbers are alarming. They scored 10 points vs. Florida, 7 vs. Oregon State and 7 vs. Boise State. Statistically, Cincinnati is on par with all three of those schools. On offense, the Bearcats have been very consistent, scoring between 24 and 30 points in their last five games, all wins. Let’s ignore the motivation factor for both sides when looking at this game and keep it simple by backing the better squad. Cincinnati
heads to the Orange Bowl on a positive note with a win on the Island.








ERIN RYNNING
KANSAS CITY +9 AT DENVER
Recommendation: Kansas City
Divisional rematch here as the Chiefs knocked off the Broncos, 33-19 as a nine-point underdog, in their first meeting in Arrowhead. No question, the Broncos have shown a real Jekyll and Hyde personality this season. They’re able to compete with the best teams in the league but consistently play down to the level of the bottom feeders as well. Obviously, with an inability
to stop anyone from a defensive perspective, many of their games have simply turned into shootouts. They rank near the bottom in just about every statistical category on defense and even the most putrid of offenses can’t help but trade scores. Denver’s home field advantage has also taken a hit compared to past editions. One could look at the disappearance of the once dominating run game as the culprit. How many times did we used to see the Broncos jump out to a big lead and just pound the ball the rest of the way? That ability is clearly no longer there. Are the Chiefs a good football team? No. But they’ve been game for most of the season despite the brutal record and we’ll gladly take the points with them this weekend




TEDDY COVERS
WASHINGTON AT BALTIMORE N/L
Recommendation: Baltimore
At some point, the betting marketplace has to start giving the Baltimore Ravens some respect. But it hasn’t happened yet, making Baltimore a clear choice on Sunday Night as they take on the banged up, fading Redskins. After their ugly loss to the Giants last Sunday, Washington has now lost three of its last four. In fact, since their 4-1 start, the Redskins have been a pointspread disaster area, covering the number only once in their last seven games -- a one-point cover against the hapless Lions. When Washington has lined up against a defensive-minded, physical opponent, their offense has been non-existent, producing only six points against the Steelers, 10 against the Cowboys and seven against the Giants. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven ball games scoring at least 27 points in each one of those six wins and covers. Baltimore’s defense has lived up to its stellar reputation and the offense is finally a force to be reckoned with as well. Joe Flacco is playing like a seasoned veteran and the complimentary running game has been nearly unstoppable.
Baltimore’s four home wins and covers have come by a combined nine touchdowns and their lone loss came by a single field goal against the mighty Titans.




FAIRWAY JAY
PHILADELPHIA +8 AT NY GIANTS
Recommendation: Philadelphia
The NY Giants (11-1) continue their roll as the NFL’s best team and biggest money maker (10-2 ATS). The G-Men have won and covered seven-straight games, and we cashed an “under the total” winner as part of our big 5-1 NFL weekend when the NYG beat Washington 23-7. Now returning home in the middle of a three-game division set, the Giants have nearly secured home field throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives. Philadelphia lost to the Giants 36-31 a month ago as the Giants
maintained a 2:1 time-of-possession advantage while running the ball for over 200 yards on the worn down Philadelphia defense. The Eagles still have one of the top-3 yards-per-play defenses and are No. 2 in the NFL in sacks with their high-pressure and blitzing schemes. Philadelphia is statistically
solid on both sides of the ball and they showed their strength on Thanksgiving
when they knocked the stuffing out of Arizona, 48-20. The Eagles piled up 437 yards and a NFL season-high 31 first downs and I expect that momentum
to continue with a competitive division contest against the Giants.




ROB VENO
PHILADELPHIA +8 AT NY GIANTS
Recommendation: Philadelphia
The first game between these teams this season saw the Giants pound their way to 219 rushing yards and a 36-31 win at Lincoln Financial. Aside from that contest
a month ago and one versus Washington back in early October, the Eagles run defense has been outstanding yielding just 70 yards and 3.0 per carry in their other 10 games. Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Johnson figures to commit to containing the Giants ground game here and any success should keep the Eagles in this all the way. After a week of intense media bashing, Philadelphia
came out and played tremendously on Thanksgiving night posting their most balanced effort of the season. Expect that performance to ignite this team and their peaking confidence, determination and talent levels are likely to generate another strong showing here. New York is in their seventh consecutive
game against playoff caliber competition going a remarkable 6-0 straight up and against the spread. However, this game holds far more importance for the opponent and the situation signals strongly toward the Eagles. Desperation
sets in and Philly comes through with a cover as a high-priced underdog.




TIM TRUSHEL
MIAMI AT BUFFALO -1
Recommendation: Buffalo
The Bills have moved their home game to Toronto for the first ever regular season game played in Canada. They hope to get back on track after reversing a 5-1 start with a 1-5 run to move to 6-6 on the season. Last week against the 49ers, the Bills drove the ball very effectively in the loss. They failed to convert in the red zone with two missed field goals and two other fruitless drives. They played very poorly and were beset with injuries. Meanwhile Miami bounced back off a tough loss to New England with a workmanlike win over the Rams. It wasn’t pretty but it got the job done. Both of these teams are “slightly better than average” but neither team is a strong playoff contender or dominating in any one facet. The reality of these two teams is that the team in the more favorable situation is likely to win the ball game. We like the situation here for Buffalo as they catch the Dolphins in off a satisfying road win. Teams in this situation off a road win as a favorite and then on the road the following week as a dog are 0-4 this season and 27-42 ATS since 2001. Trent Edwards’ sore groin forced him to the bench, but against the Dolphins we tab J.P. Losman
as a capable replacement. The Bills fighting for their season will earn the victory




DONNIE BLACK
NY JETS AT SAN FRANCISCO +4
Recommendation: San Francisco
San Francisco continues to put forth maximum effort for interim head coach Mike Singletary, scoring their second SU win and third ATS victory in four games under the fiery head man. The Niners will ride that momentum back to the Bay Area where they have a chance to knock off another playoff
contender from the AFC East. In addition to a bad situational spot for the Jets (cross country trip with a key divisional game on tap next week) this is a tricky fundamental matchup. Their 30th ranked pass defense has given up 250 yards per game and will certainly be tested by Mike Martz’ passing scheme. Shaun Hill has been a solid replacement to the turnover prone JT O’Sullivan, leading the 49ers with as many TDs, a third of the INTs, and a better
completion percentage in half the starts. Plus, with Frank Gore getting more touches, the 49ers have limited the exposure of their defense. Brett Favre
leads the NFL with 14 INTs and 10 fumbles (though he hasn’t lost a lot of them) which will likely lead Mangini to play it a little more conservative on the road this week. As such we’ll side with the scrappy Niners plus the points.

JARED KLEIN
ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS -3
Recommendation: New Orleans
The NFC South’s home field advantage has been simply amazing this season. The division as a whole is an outstanding 22-2 SU and 16-6-2 ATS on their home turf. The Saints have certainly partaken in the festivities with a 5-1 SU and ATS mark in the Superdome. This week they’ll face an Atlanta team that has had a fairly comfortable road schedule against a lot of mediocre offenses. This week, they’ll need to be ready from the get-go. New Orleans boasts the top offense (405.3 ypg) and passing game (316.9 ypg) in the NFL. At home is where the Saints are clearly at their best. In six games, they’ve averaged 34 ppg and have performed much stronger on the defensive
side of the football. Atlanta’s defense is good but not great and at times has been susceptible to the pass. In the first matchup, Drew Brees threw for 416 yards but had three interceptions. We expect similar numbers
minus the miscues this week as Brees has tossed only four of his 14 picks at home. It may be a lost cause with three teams ahead of them in the division but the situationals call for the Saints to prevail in this matchup.
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext vAlign=bottom width="85%"><TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=smalltext width="100%" colSpan=2></TD></TR><TR><TD class=smalltext id=modified_169538 vAlign=bottom></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK


AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK

PLAY ON any college home dog with a
winning record if they won 8 or more
games last season and were favored
by 25 > points in their last game
versus a foe that is not undefeated.

Play On: HAWAII WARRIORS

ATS W-L Record Since 1980:14-2 (88%)




INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

The Chicago Bears are 0-14 SU and ATS
in Game Thirteen when their win percentage
is less than .700 on the season


There have been a total of 31 college football same-season
rematches where one team beat the other in the fi rst game.
In 25 of the 31 rematches, the team who lost the fi rst game
either won the game or played closer in the rematch game!



Thursday, December 4th

RUTGERS over Louisville by 16
Did anyone catch that freight train tearing threw Piscataway? It’s Greg
Schiano’s Scarlet Knights and they’re taking no prisoners during an impressive
5-game winning streak. They have also covered 6 of 7 and show no signs
of slowing down this week, boasting a healthy 5-1 ATS mark in their Last
Home Game when playing with revenge. Schiano’s crew is also 7-0 against
the number with revenge versus a sub .500 foe. And thanks to Louisville’s
4-game losing skid that’s seen its defense shredded for 132 points, that’s
exactly where Kragthorpe’s Redbirds reside – under the water level. The
visitors desperately need a win to become bowl eligible but, at 6-6, that may
not even be enough to guarantee an invitation. With the series visitor 0-3
SU and ATS recently, we’ll be jumping on the bandwagon…err, freight train,
known as Rutgers. All aboard!



Friday, December 5th
MAC CHAM P IONSHI P
Ball St over Buffalo by 13
Can’t blame the Gonads if they don’t go ‘balls-out’ in tonight’s MAC
championship. After all, while a win does complete a perfect 13-0 campaign
for the 12th-ranked Cardinals, they’ll likely be relegated to a bowl game
south of January 1st. Turner Gill’s Bulls appear to be a dangerous dog in this
spot as our trusty database informs us that championship dogs of more than
6 points who score 21 or more points are a sterling 14-3 ATS – and the Bulls
have lit up the scoreboard for 21 or more in all but one game this season. Oh,
we should also inform you about this other interesting tidbit: teams in MAC
title games off 3 SU wins are just 1-5 SU and 0-4-2 ATS. Throw in the fact
that undefeated favorites of 17 or less points are 1-5 ATS in championship
games and it looks like the men of Muncie enter this showdown with the
proverbial noose around their necks. We’re not quite ready to run with the
Bulls so we’ll opt for a slow jog instead.




Saturday, December 6th
Navy over Army by 14
In a desperate bid to attract viewers to the annual battle for the
Commander-In-Chief trophy, CBS is actually promoting this weekend’s
Army-Navy game as “one of the greatest spectacles in all of sports.”
Uh… can you run that by us one more time? Yes, we are a nation at war
and it may be considered disrespectful to downplay the signifi cance of
Saturday’s matchup but we honestly don’t know a single person without
a sizable wager on the outcome who’s going to watch this mind-numbing
scrum. However, we can tell you that our ticket will have ‘NAVY’ stamped
all over it in plain view. We’re aware that the QB with the impossibleto-
spell-or-pronounce last name may not be manning the helm for the
Middies but that’s not a problem. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs, who had looked
impressive coming off the bench in 3 straight games, got his fi rst start last
week against a tough Northern Illinois defense and rushed for 124 yards
en route to the Mids’ 16-0 win. He also directed his offense to scoring
drives on its fi rst two possessions while hogging the ball for more than
17 minutes in the fi rst half. Yes, we’re aware Navy has locked up a bid
to appear in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl in Washington, D.C. but that
won’t lessen their intensity here in a bid to secure the Academy’s 6th
straight CIC Trophy. Not only are the swabbies a super 10-1 as chalk with
rest, they’re an outstanding 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS in the last 5-plus years
versus Military opposition. No doubt that Army’s improved on both sides
of the ball this year; in fact, both teams have posted remarkably similar
numbers in yards gained and allowed. But the Middies are far less likely to
beat themselves, racking up 27 takeaways this season for a +14 turnover
margin compared to Army’s -12 TO embarrassment. Navy also converts a
higher percentage of 3rd-down situations, averages 1.1 yards more per
play than the Cadets and just so happens to catch Army marching straight
down the path to pointspread oblivion: the Black Knights are a woeful
1-17 SU and 2-16 ATS with rest versus an opponent with a win percentage
of > .333. With the Midshipmen outscoring the infantry by 16 PPG while
navigating a much tougher schedule, we think it’s time to go full speed
ahead with the Annapolis armada. Sail on, sail on, sailor…


UCONN over Pittsburgh by 4
Jeez, as much as we’ve ragged on Pittsburgh head coach Dave Wannstedt
this season the fact is Wanny’s Panthers are sitting at 8-3 and poised to lead
their Steel City fans to a bowl game for the fi rst time since 2005, the year
then-coach Walt Harris’ skein of 5 straight bowl appearances was snapped.
Pittsburgh has fueled its recent turnaround by winning the close games: 4
of the Black Cats’ 8 wins have come by 1, 5, 3 and 4 points. The visitors are
looking to settle the score for last season’s 34-14 drubbing, losing outright
to UConn as 7.5 point home chalk but Pitt may still be celebrating its second
straight win over West Virginia in their fabled ‘Backyard Brawl’ (Panthers just
2-5 ATS away after WVU). Regardless of the intangibles surrounding today’s
game, both defenses had better be prepared for some smashmouth football
– Connecticut’s Donald Brown and Pittsburgh’s LeSean “Shady” McCoy are
two of the nation’s most hard-nosed, relentless running backs. The Huskies
have cashed in 3 of the 4 most recent meetings and a UConn victory along
with some help from its friends could lead to a 3-way tie for 2nd place in the
conference with Pitt and West Virginia. This just in from our database: bowl
teams playing their Last Home Game with rest as dogs or favorites of less
than 4 points are a solid 23-12 ATS, including 9-3 off a loss. Look for Brown,
the NCAA’s leading rusher, to rebound from a sub-par outing against South
Florida and lead the Sled Dogs to win No. 8 on Senior Day.




WEST VIRGINIA over South Florida by 8
We’ve seen some unexpectedly disappointing performances this season by
decent teams – Tennessee, Fresno State and Purdue to name a few – but
few have slammed into the earth with a more resounding thud than the
battered Bulls of South Florida. With QB Matt Grothe back to direct a team
that had logged consecutive 9-4 bowl campaigns, the Bulls were expected
to stomp through the Big East china shop and emerge with a conference
championship. Adding to USF’s confi dence were a pair of upsets over
conference bear West Virginia – 21-13 as a 7-point home dog last year and
a 24-19 win here as 21-point mutts in ’06. But following a torrid 5-0 SU
start in ‘08, Grothe & company have stumbled badly in league play, going
2-4 SU and ATS. Even worse, if we toss out the 45 points the Bulls put on
lowly Syracuse, they’re averaging a mere 16.8 PPG against Big East foes.
That won’t get the job done against a bunch of double-revenging Hillbillies
eager to make superstar QB Pat White’s fi nal home game with West Virginia
one for the books (White is now college football’s all-time career rushing
QB). The Mounties will be doubly pissed, too, after blowing last week’s
game with Pitt (and a shot at the conference crown) in the closing seconds
at Heinz Field. It’s simple: we’d rather risk our loot on a WVU team that’s
4-0 SU at home off a previous home loss with White than ask the most
underachieving 7-4 squad in American to play with some heart. Lay it if
you play it.




CALIFORNIA over Washington by 31
With Alabama versus Florida starting about an hour after this one, my
guess is that Nielsen is going to report there was one viewer for this game
– and that was Ty Willingham’s aunt. We do think the Huskies will play hard
in Tyrone’s send-off but how do you back the only team in the FBS that’s
been outgained in EVERY contest this season – and lost the Crapple Bowl to
pathetic Washington State? When they are facing a Cal squad that appears
to have already gone into hibernation, that’s how! The Berkeley Bears have
dropped 2 of their last 3 contests (all three ITS) and are just 1-7 ATS their last
8 regular games with rest. These guys might be smarter than the average
bear, but Boo Boo, we ain’t layin’ 5 TDs with this sleep-walking bunch. Take
it if you absolutely must play it.



Usc over UCLA by 28
Remember those posters and print ads that Neuheisel and the Bruins
produced early in the season promoting UCLA football? We have a feeling
that the ones that didn’t end up as trash liners in the Memorial Coliseum
garbage cans are hanging in the USC locker room. With a trip to the Rose
Bowl on the line, Carroll really doesn’t need much ammo to win this one…
especially with a smothering “D” that has held 7 opponents to season low
yardage. To steal a line from one of our favorites, Maxwell Smart, “Would
you believe a kid on a bicycle with a BB gun?” could probably slow down a
Bruins offense that is averaging less than 20 PPG on the season. Both teams
have numbers to support their case. The Trojans boast a 5-1 ATS mark as
chalk off a non-conference SU win of 21 or more points while the Bruins
check in at 4-0 ATS in their Last Home Game – plus they’re 5-0 as HD’s of 7 or
more points. The big number looks just about right but it’s only moving in
one direction (upward) and that will likely keep us leaning to the dog.



ARIZONA over Arizona State by 11
Dennis Erickson’s crew needs this one to become bowl eligible but they
might not have enough fi repower to get it done. Don’t be fooled by last
week’s 34-9 “phony” win over UCLA as the Sun Devils were held to just 122
yards total offense and relied on their defense for a majority of those points.
However, we’re not “wild” about these Arizona Cats, either, as they bring a
2-12 ATS Last Home Game mark into this contest – and they’re also a moneyburning
3-17 ATS as home favorites of more than 3 points. An interesting
side note to this desert battle: the Sun Devils’ 5th-year SR QB Rudy Carpenter
has never lost to the Wildcats. We’re just going to watch this one to see if
Rudy can get one for the thumb. Pass.



Cincinnati over HAWAII by 3
It’s only fi tting that the Bearcats should be rewarded with a sun-splashed
Hawaiian vacation before heading off to their fi rst-ever BCS bowl game
in January. A win here will push Cincy’s SU record to 21-5 under 2nd-year
coaching phenom Brian Kelly but pocketing the ATS dough may not be
so easy. Teams off a home game playing their fi nal game of the season in
Hawaii are 5-10 SU and ATS when the Warriors own a win percentage of
.500 or greater. UH also takes protecting its home turf very seriously, going
10-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of 20 or less points. Yes, Cincinnati is
4-0-1 off a SU Big East home win of 20 or more points and the ‘Cats are 14-1-
1 ATS off back-to-back home games – but none of those contests involved a
layover in Honolulu en route to a big bowl game on the mainland. With the
visitors possibly looking to rest key players and avoid injury, we’ll take a cue
from this week’s AWESOME ANGLE and side with the Grass Skirts today.



ADDED GAMES
TROY over Arkansas St by 11
Though the fi nal days of the college football season leave us with a tinge
of sadness, there’s always a silver lining to the dark cloud: we don’t have to
spend any more time analyzing games for a bunch of Sun Belt garbage scows
that shouldn’t even be on the board. Even so, we’ll roll up our sleeves, crank
up the database and take our medicine like big boys. The numbers do not
favor the hosts today. Troy is a miserable 1-7 ATS during the regular season
when playing with rest and they continue to fail in Last Home Game scenarios,
going 1-6 ATS of late (0-3 SUATS L3Y). The Red Wolves have covered 3 of the
last 4 get-togethers and they owe the Trojans big-time for last year’s 27-0
home shutout loss. Arky State also needs to beat Troy today to tie for the SBC
title but with the Alabama Trojans winning the stat wars in 10 of 11 games
this season, we don’t see that happening. You’re on your own here.



FLORIDA INT’L over W Kentucky by 3
If you live near the Miami area, there’ll be plenty of good seats available
for today’s merciful season-ender between these two underachievers. The
rusty 2-9 Hilltoppers haven’t played a game in three weeks and will drag
along an 0-3 ATS ball and chain as favorites or dogs of less than 10 points.
Having dropped to 4-7 after last week’s overtime loss to Florida Atlantic,
FIU has no shot at a winning season and will probably just go through the
motions before heading off to a South Beach keg party. The not-so-golden
Panthers have been favored by more than 6 points TWICE since coming on
board – and they lost the whole game both times. FIU also bears the added
stigma of being installed as home chalk off an OT loss, always a recipe for
pointspread disaster. Put a gun to our head and we’ll lean to the dog!


C - U SA CHAM P IONSH I P
TULSA over E Carolina by 16
Note to Hurricane head coach Todd Graham: add David Bailiff to your
Christmas shopping list. Were it not for Rice’s stirring upset over Houston,
Tulsa would not be playing this week. Instead, they’ll host East Division
winner East Carolina at H.A. Chapman Stadium for the C-USA cheese. And
like a storm a-brewing, the numbers are strong in the Hurricane’s favor.
Aside from owning a 3-0 SU and ATS series mark against the Pirates, Tulsa
should also like the fact that the home team in C-USA championship game
history is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Granted, ECU head coach Skip Holtz is 19-
5 ATS when taking points but his club is on a 2-8 ATS skid in its last ten games
(the Bandits managed an 0-6 ATS effort as a visitor this season). We also
note a disturbing 10-31-1 ATS mark as a dog for ECU in games in which they
surrender more than 38 points. A quick check of Graham’s dossier fi nds that
Tulsa has averaged 50 PPG at home under his direction. In fact, they’ve lit it
up to the tune of 60.5 PPG at Chapman Stadium this season. After taking it
on the chops at UCF in the title game last year in a 44-25 setback, we’ll issue
a Hurricane warning in Northeast Oklahoma this Saturday. Tulsa Tempest!





ACC CHAM P IONSH I P
Va Tech over Boston College by 3
Play it again, Sam. That could certainly be the theme surrounding the ACC
Championship game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa this Saturday.
These same two teams squared off in last year’s title tilt when the Hokies
captured a 30-16 win, a game in which they were outstatted 389-300.
Normally that would set the table for a revenge call to BC. The problem is
they already extracted their piece of fl esh in a 28-23 victory at Chestnut Hill
earlier this season. Thus it becomes advantage, Frank Beamer. And Beamer
is at his best when he’s looking to avenge a conference loss where he stands
20-4-2 ATS against a .500 or greater foe. That weaves nicely into the fact that
the team looking to settle a score is 2-0 SU and ATS in ACC championship
games. The Eagles closed strong, going 4-0 SU and ATS in their fi nal four
games despite losing starting QB Chris Crane to a broken collarbone two
games ago. The bottom line here is the ever-sagacious SMART BOX comes to
Tech’s aid and Beamer-ball is at its best in big games. As Ilsa would have said
to Beamer, “Play it again, Frank.”




S EC CHAM P IONSHI P
Florida over Alabama by 7
We don’t know who will ultimately be matched up in this year’s BCS dogand-
pony show for the ‘national championship’ but if today’s game even
remotely lives up to expectations, it could blow the BCS Bowl right out of
the water. Both Alabama coach Nick Saban and Florida leader Urban Meyer
are two of the college game’s biggest success stories, molders of aggressive
and physically overpowering squads that fi nd ways to impose their will on
their opponents (each man has won a national title with an SEC program).
However, both coaches own such combative personalities that they’re reviled
by the media and fans alike for their win-at-all-cost philosophy and refusal
to make nice during press conferences and interviews. Big deal… Saban and
Meyer are outstanding evaluators of talent in addition to being top-notch
motivators and the winner of this mega-showdown will have an opportunity
to claim a 3rd consecutive national crown for the Southeastern Conference.
As you might expect, each squad brings some solid pointspread credentials
to the table today. Bama has cashed 4 straight in the series, the Tide has
rolled to a near-fl awless 10-0-1 ATS record as dogs of 6 or more points off BB
SU wins since 1990 and Saban owns a 19-8 ATS log playing off consecutive
SUATS wins. Also, undefeated teams in conference championship games are
9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS of late (strangely 0-5 ATS if they allow < 13.5 PPG). The
swamp-dwellers counter with an 8-0-1 ATS mark vs .850 > conference foes
from Game Six out, they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in SEC title games and head Gator
Meyer is 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS when tackling an undefeated opponent.
Alabama has earned its current position at the top of the BCS heap but this
year’s Florida team is clearly something special. Not only have the Gators
annihilated their last 8 adversaries by an average of 39.6 PPG, last week
they also became the fi rst team ever that was not undefeated to beat the
Florida State at home when the Seminoles were playing off a previous home
loss under Bobby Bowden (his teams had gone 23-0 SU under his tenure
since 1974). But even though Meyer’s dizzying array of offensive formations
makes the Alabama scheme look like it was taken straight from a bottle of
vanilla extract, the truth is both teams excel at running the ball and stopping
the run. That being the case, we just can’t lay doubles to the hungry, wellcoached
Crimson Tide. Gators chomp their way to the BCS title game but
Bama pockets the cash.





B I G 12 CHAM P IONSHI P
Oklahoma over Missouri by 16
Don’t mention this game to Longhorn fans: Texas will be watching the two
teams it beat this season play for the Big 12 championship and a possible
trip to the BCS title game. It’s just the latest in a sorry series of events that
will continue to plague college football until a playoff system is fi nally
approved. Just look at the opening round games if an 8-team playoff format
using the BCS ratings was in place right now – Alabama versus Penn State,
Oklahoma in a rematch with Texas Tech, Texas against undefeated Utah and
Florida versus USC. Wow! Instead, what many think we’ll get here is just
a glorifi ed scrimmage ending in yet another Sooner rout. A litany of ATS
numbers does little to challenge that expectation. Mizzou owns a lifeless
1-18 SU and 7-12 ATS mark in the last 19 meetings and the underdog has
cashed only 4 times in 12 tries in Big 12 championship games. Even worse for
the Tigers, they’re 16-73 ATS in games where they allow 35 or more points
– and Stoops’ troops have scored 35 or more in EVERY GAME this year. In
fact, OU’s powerful offense has scored an incredible 61 TDs in 71 tries in the
Red Zone this season and they may get to face Missouri without the Tigers’
all-world WR Jeremy Maclin, hurt last week in a loss to Kansas. But – and
it’s a really BIG but – despite all this overwhelming support in favor of the
Sooner juggernaut, they’ve still “got to play the game” and we think QB
Chase Daniel and company will not go quietly tonight. Coming off a lastminute
setback to the Jayhawks and burning to get even for last year’s 38-17
embarrassment by Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, Mizzou could use
the Arrrowhead Stadium crowd support to major advantage. However, the
biggest reason we’re waffl ing here is the line: opening at 15.5 points, the
number has climbed to 18 and will probably go even higher before kickoff.
We’ll wait and see where things settle before pulling the trigger

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLDSHEET

COLLEGE ANALYSIS

KEY RELEASES

ARIZONA by 21 over Arizona State
HAWAII by 3 over Cincinnati


*ARIZONA 34 - Arizona State 13—Not convinced that ASU’s recent
uptick at the expense of Pac-10 court jesters U-Dub, Wazzu, & UCLA any sort
of “buy” signal for Sun Devils. Especially since QB Carpenter & HC Dennis
Erickson’s “O” labored for much of game vs. Cougs and barely gained 100
yards of total offense in last week’s misleading win over the Bruins when ASU
“D” scored all Sun Devil TDs. Now, ASU facing live ammunition for first time in
over a month in form of o.c. Sonny Dykes’ potent Arizona spread and sr. QB
Tuitama, looking to close home career with a bang. And though Sun Devils
need a win to get bowl-eligible, there’s plenty at stake for postseason-bound
Wildcats, too, especially for HC Mike Stoops, who might need a victory (which
would get Cats to 7-5) to secure his future employment in Tucson. CABLE
TV—ESPN
(07-ARIZ. ST. 20-Ariz. 17...S.18-17 S.40/97 U.19/44 U.28/52/2/272 S.20/37/0/247 S.1 U.1)
(07-ASU -7 20-17 06-Asu +3 28-14 05-ASU -9' 23-20...SR: Arizona 44-36-1)




*HAWAII 34 - Cincinnati 31—On fundamentals alone, would
probably be compelled to back bigger, faster Cincinnati squad that’s riding 5-
game win streak. But this might be the spot to play “psychology” angle—i.e.,
Bearcats wouldn’t be first team to treat a late-season sojourn to the islands as
a vacation instead of a business trip. And if Cincy, which has already secured
the Big East title and an Orange Bowl bid, isn’t fully focused, blossoming Hawaii
QB Greg Alexander (867 YP & 7 TDP in last 3 games) capable of leading
Warriors to small upset, especially with Bearcats’ star sr. CB Mike Mickens
sidelined by knee injury. CABLE TV—ESPN2 (DNP...SR: EVEN 1-1)








THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4
*RUTGERS 41 - Louisville 21—Schedule-maker the only one able to cool
off resurgent Rutgers recently, as streaking Scarlet Knights had won 5 straight
(and covered 7 in a row) prior to last week’s open date. Still, even with Louisville
fighting for its post-season life, expect host to pick up where it left off. Final
home game for zoned-in senior QB Mike Teel (68% for 1290 yards & 13 TDP in
last 4 games!), while NFL-caliber 6-4 jr. WR Kenny Britt, who’s snagged 57
passes for 929 yards since serving one-game suspension at end of September,
is a nightmare matchup for depleted Cardinal secondary. And, with Rutgers
defense unleashing myriad blitzes on limping Louisville sr. QB Hunter Cantwell,
no surprise if fading visitor continues to self-destruct (Cards have coughed up
14 turnovers while dropping their last 4 games both straight-up & vs. spread).
CABLE TV—ESPN
(07-LVL. 41-Rutgers 38...R.25-21 L.45/240 R.37/153 R.21/32/0/265 L.12/22/0/237 L.1 R.0)
(07-LVL. -2' 41-38 06-RUT. +6' 28-25 05-LVL. -21' 56-5...SR: Rutgers 5-2)



FRIDAY, DECEMBER 5
MAC CHAMPIONSHIP
(At Ford Field - Detroit, Michigan)
*Ball State 40 - Buffalo 21—All due respect to Buffalo’s best team in 50
years, but Ball State has more edges in this game. It was a bad sign for the Bull
defense to give up 167 YR to QB Edelman and 150 to Flash RB Jarvis in last
week’s home loss to Kent. And, in its previous game at Bowling Green, UB fell
behind 21-0. Ball State’s MiQuale Lewis (1570 YR, 20 TDs in ‘08; 10 carries for
99 YR vs. Buffalo in his only game vs. the Bulls in ‘06) and QB Nate Davis (6667
YP, 55 TDP, just 12 ints. last 2 seasons; 73%, 6 TDs, just 1 int. in 2 career
games vs. Buffalo) are capable of putting up monster numbers Respect Buffalo’s “triplets” of RB James Starks (123 ypg rushing), WR
Naaman Roosevelt (86 recs., 1196 yds.) and QB Drew Willy (64%, 2885 YP, 22
TDP, just 5 ints.), but Cardinals are at least an equal offensively, and superior
on defense & special teams. Buffalo allows 12 more ppg than Ball State. The
Bulls STs are sadly lacking (108th in net punting, 116 in kickoff returns), while
Ball State is 9th in punt returns. Card QB Davis, 6th in the country in pass
efficiency, will have all the time he wants, as only 2 teams have collected fewer
sacks than the Bulls, while Ball State ranks 5th in fewest sacks allowed.
Also consider the fact that Ball State has never lost to Buffalo, with impressive
covers in 2 most recent meetings. Realize Bulls have covered 8 straight as a dog,
but Brady Hoke’s Cards are 15-5-1 last 21 as a favorite. CABLE TV—ESPN2
(07-BSU 49-Buf. 14...Bs.28-11 Bs.48/274 Bf.27/83 Bs.21/29/0/233 Bf.14/19/1/136 Bs.0 Bf.1)
(07-BALL ST. -13' 49-14 06-Ball St. -4 55-25...SR: Ball State 6-0)



SATURDAY, DECEMBER 6
Navy 26 - Army 10—This year’s version of Army a little more competent
than the last six Black Knight editions that have been spanked by Navy. But the
novelty element that worked in West Point’s favor after its return to option
football earlier in campaign certainly won’t catch the Midshipmen off guard as
it did several of Army’s midseason foes, and Navy’s suspect 2ndary (ranks 101st
vs. pass) unlikely to get exposed by QB Bowden and Stan Brock’s land-locked
offense. So unless the presence of George W. Bush (attending rivalry for first
time since ‘04) summons extra-special effort from Black Knights, shade recent
series trends, especially with Navy “D” off first shutout in 4 years and electric
soph QB Dobbs picking up nuances of Mid option quite seamlessly. (at
Philadelphia, Pa.) TV—CBS
(07-Navy 38-Army 3...N.19-15 N.61/287 A.40/100 A.12/23/0/117 N.2/5/0/7 N.0 A.2)
(07-Navy -14 38-3 at Balt. 06-Navy -19' 26-14 at Phi. 05-Navy -6 42-23 at Phi...SR: Navy 52-49-7)



CONNECTICUT 26 - Pittsburgh 19—These teams are very similar, starting
with their respective “ground-centric” offenses that each feature one of the most
productive RBs in the country (but with each also limited by a QB that rarely
does substantial damage in air). Can’t expect sudden explosion from either
signal-caller, as Husky sr. Tyler Lorenzen & Panther jr. Bill Stull have combined
for just 9 TDP (vs. 14 ints.) this season. And no surprise if marqueé battle
between UConn jr. RB Donald Brown (nation-leading 148 ypg rushing) & Pitt
counterpart soph LeSean McCoy (1308 YR & 20 TDs) turns out to be a draw. So
it might be best to shade significant home-field advantage, which has seen host
Huskies cover 16 of their last 22 at Hartford. TV—ESPN2
(07-Conn. 34-PITT 14...P.19-17 C.46/115 P.23/72 P.31/51/4/277 C.12/25/0/174 C.1 P.2)
(07-Conn. +8' 34-14 06-CONN. +8 46-45 (OT) 05-PITT -12 24-0...SR: Connecticut 3-1)



*South Florida 24 - WEST VIRGINIA 23—Sure, record-setting
Mountaineer sr. QB Pat White would love to go out with a flourish in front of rabid
Morgantown faithful. But there’s a reason why revenge-minded West Virginia
has dropped last 2 meetings against South Florida—the Bulls’ defense has had
the speed necessary to contain White & the Mountaineers’ quick-striking
ground attack. And such appears to be the case again, as the swarming USF
stop unit is permitting only a paltry 94 ypg rushing this season. Even though Bull
jr. QB Matt Grothe (9 ints. in last 4 games) has been forcing too many throws
lately, he’s more likely to make key plays in the air than White, who’s passed for
200+ yards in a game only twice in last two campaigns. TV—ESPN2
(07-S. FLA. 21-W. Va. 13...W.21-13 W.48/188 S.38/139 W.23/38/3/249 S.11/20/2/135 S.2 W.3)
(07-USF +7 21-13 06-Usf +21 24-19 05-Wva -9 28-13...SR: South Florida 2-1)



CALIFORNIA 48 - Washington 10—No truth to rumors that one of Barack
Obama’s first acts as president will be Federal bailout assistance to U-Dub
football program. Not that Huskies couldn’t use all the help they can get,
especially considering how team has shown no interest in summoning a special
effort for lame-duck HC Ty Willingham since his imminent departure was
confirmed over a month ago (winless U-Dub also on nation’s worst 9-game
spread losing streak). Meanwhile, upbeat Cal is jockeying for improved bowl
position, and Jeff Tedford not about to let his Bears forget about LY’s humbling 14-
point loss in Seattle. Cal a noteworthy 6-0 SU and vs. line in “Berserk-eley” in ‘08.
(07-WASH. 37-Cal. 23...W.20-16 W.56/334 C.27/147 C.20/28/1/236 W.7/19/0/108 W.0 C.2)
(07-WASH. +7 37-23 06-CAL. -23 31-24 (OT) 05-Cal. -9 56-17...SR: Washington 46-37-4)



Southern Cal 31 - UCLA 6—We wonder if Rick Neuheisel will seek the
services of Henry Kissinger to mend any understandable broken fences
between UCLA’s “O” and “D” after Bruins gift-wrapped a hard-to-fathom, NCAA
record-tying 4 TDs to Arizona State’s defense in last week’s 34-9 loss at Tempe.
And indeed, one of the few questions in of this year’s crosstown rivalry is
whether USC’s stop unit will outscore the mistake-prone UCLA offense on its
own. But with pointspread likely ballooning into stratosphere, it’s worth
remembering how Bruin d.c. Walker’s schemes have has been able to “junk up”
the SC offensive machinery the past two meetings, games which UCLA
covered (including a memorable 13-9 upset in ‘06). And despite dominating
conference foes, note that Pete Carroll’s Trojan juggernaut is just 5-11 vs. line
last 16 on Pac-10 road. If sage Bruin (and ex-SC) o.c. Norm Chow can find a
way to limit QB Craft’s mistakes, Bruin “D” competent enough to prevent
complete embarrassment. TV—ABC
(07-S. CAL 24-Ucla 7...S.26-10 S.49/231 U.25/12 S.21/36/1/206 U.13/29/1/156 S.1 U.3)
(07-USC -19' 24-7 06-UCLA +12' 13-9 05-USC -21 66-19...SR: Southern Cal 42-28-7)






ADDED GAMES
*TROY 34 - Arkansas State 18—It’s not Florida-Alabama, but there are
postseason implications nonetheless in this Sun Belt showdown, with winner to
get loop’s automatic bid to New Orleans Bowl. Measured vote, then, for rested
Troy bunch that unleashed heretofore underutilized infantry (whopping 391 YR,
including career-high 234 YR by RB D. Harris!) in recent 48-3 smashing of ULLafayette.
That sort of complement will come in handy for Trojans’ Richmond
transfer QB Levi Brown, who’s been efficient and mostly error-free (11 TDP, just
3 picks) since assuming starting role at midseason. Red Wolves not providing
much value lately (just 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board TY).
(07-Troy 27-ARK. ST. 0...T.17-11 T.43/200 A.34/116 T.16/26/1/168 A.12/28/3/121 T.3 A.1)
(07-Troy -5 27-0 06-Asu +8 33-26 05-ASU -3' 9-3...SR: Arkansas State 6-3)



*FLORIDA INTL. 24 - Western Kentucky 22—True, WKU hasn’t won a
game since John McCain was leading Barack Obama in the polls (Sept. 20), but
Hilltoppers hardly being outclassed by future Sun Belt foes, staying within
earshot vs. some of loop’s most competent sides (Troy, FAU, & MTSU) after
competitive effort vs. undefeated Ball State in early October. And since FIU
might find it difficult to summon extra energy after blowing late lead in gutwrenching
57-50 OT loss vs. rival FAU last week, no surprise if WKU makes it
interesting again. (05-FIU (NL) 38-35...SR: EVEN 1-1)




CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP
(H.A. Chapman Stadium - Tulsa, Oklahoma)
TULSA 40 - East Carolina 35—While the Pirates sewed up C-USA’s
weaker East Division a few weeks ago, Tulsa needed a narrow win at Marshall
last Saturday (combined with Rice’s victory over front-running Houston) to earn
the West’s spot in the conference title game for third time in last 4 years.
As usual, the case for the Golden Hurricane pretty much begins and ends
with its prolific attack (No. 1 in total offense, No. 2 in scoring offense), as clever
coordinator Gus Malzahn’s creative scheme has racked up 78 TDs & nearly
7000 yards this season. It would not be a major surprise if Tulsa’s wellbalanced
offense eventually overwhelms an East Carolina defense that has
been thinned by key injuries.
However, taking points with the Pirates appears to be higher-percentage
play. While ECU’s overall performance vs. the spread has taken a downturn
this season, HC Skip Holtz is still 19-7 as an underdog since taking the helm at
Greenville in ’05. And, since savvy senior QB Patrick Pinkney has enough
weapons to do substantial damage to the very vulnerable Hurricane defense
(44th in nation), pesky Pirates likely to take this one the distance.
CABLE TV—ESPN
(06-Tulsa -2' 31-10 05-TULSA -9' 45-13...SR: Tulsa 5-2)




ACC CHAMPIONSHIP
(Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, Florida)
Virginia Tech 19 - Boston College 13—This is fourth clash between Tech
& BC in last two campaigns, with Eagles capturing both regular-season
meetings, but Hokies prevailing in last year’s conference title game.
With familiarity factor at work (in addition to two bad-ass defenses), favor
“under” more than either side. Neither of these offenses has mustered more
than 28 points in any of its last 7 games, and BC is down to talented but raw RS
frosh Dominique Davis at QB. However, rock-ribbed Eagle defense (only 87
ypg rushing) matches up very well against bread-and-butter Hokie ground
game, and ball-hawking BC (33 takeaways—2nd most in nation) will be ready
to pounce on any mistakes from still-learning Tech soph QB Tyrod Taylor.
Still, with both teams likely playing it close to the vest on offense,
placekicking could end up being a decisive factor, and Hokie sr. Dustin Keys (20
of 25 FGs) has a lot more range than Eagles’ sr. counterpart Steve Aponavicius,
who’s hit just 7 of his 13 attempts from 30 or more yards. TV—ABC
(08-BOS. COL. 28-Va. Tech 23...B.22-14 V.38/150 B.37/82 B.16/32/3/218 V.12/27/1/90 B.2 V.0)
(07-Bos. Col. 14-VA. TECH 10...B.19-15 V.41/116 B.18/32 B.25/53/2/285 V.15/25/0/149 B.0 V.2)
(07-Va. Tech 30-BOS. COL. 16...B.24-22 V.36/98 B.25/84 B.33/52/2/305 V.21/33/1/202 V.1 B.0)
(08-BC -3 28-23; 07-Bc +3 14-10, Tech -4' 30-16 06-BC +2' 22-3 05-TECH -13' 30-10...SR:Tech 9-7)




SEC CHAMPIONSHIP
(Georgia Dome - Atlanta, Georgia)
Florida 35 - Alabama 17—Granted, we haven’t been presented with many
“slugger vs. boxer” analogies in Florida games this season. That’s because the
Gators haven’t had to deal with the sort of physical, pounding “O” in combo with
a righteous ”D” as presented by Nick Saban’s unbeaten Alabama.
By the same token, however, the Crimson Tide has been mostly feasting
upon transitional offenses and shaky opposing QBs in SEC West...hardly the
case presented by roaring Florida. Indeed, Gators’ recent demolition run has
included humiliations of competent defenses such as Kentucky, Georgia, and
South Carolina. And no team outside of the NFL attacks with as much speed
as does Urban Meyer’s deep and versatile spread, which hardly figures to skip
a beat even if homerun threat Percy Harvin is limited or otherwise compromised
by high ankle sprain. That’s because other weapons Chris Rainey (8.0 ypc!) &
Jeff Demps (9.6 ypc...yikes!) equally adept at creating fireworks, while
Heisman QB Tim Tebow (25 TDP, just 2 picks in ‘08!) has been nearly flawless
since Florida’s lone slip on banana peel in late September vs. Ole Miss.
Not as convinced that Bama QB Wilson will be able to match scoring shots,
especially since voracious Gator “D” likely to wreck Tide’s offensive balance by
ganging up on RBs Coffee & Ingram. And don’t mind laying reasonable number
with Florida, since Gators are a near-spotless 10-1 vs. the line despite imposing
imposts each week. TV—CBS
(06-FLORIDA -15 28-13 05-ALABAMA +3' 31-3...SR: Alabama 20-13)




BIG XII CHAMPIONSHIP
(Arrowhead Stadium - Kansas City, Missouri)
*Oklahoma 52 - Missouri 26—Missouri does have the edge of having
played Kansas last week on a sloppy, re-sodded field at Arrowhead, which is
likely to diminish some of the Sooners’ speed advantage. But Oklahoma is on
such a high-octane roll (11-1 SU, 9-2 vs. the number, 10-1 “over,” four straight
60-point games) that the pointspread must be very large before we could back
the 9-3 Tigers. As competent and well-coached as it is, 9-3 Mizzou stands 91st
in total defense and gave up 41 ppg in its three losses to Oklahoma State,
Texas & Kansas—all spread-offense teams with excellent QBs.
Such are the Sooners, with Sam Bradford (left hand will require surgery after
this game) hitting 68.2% for 4080 yds. with 46 TDs vs. only six interceptions.
OU beat MU 38-17 in the Big XII title clash LY indoors at San Antonio, pulling
away after a 14-14 first half. Perhaps only the weather and the field can keep the
Sooners from moving out earlier TY. OU owned a 166-98 rush edge in LY’s title
clash, and the Sooners’ big, veteran OL and RBs DeMarco Murray & Chris Brown
(a combined 1990 YR) figure to establish that advantage earlier this time around.
Although Tiger sr. QB Chase Daniel (75.1%, 34 TDs, 13 ints.) is relentless,
and WR/KR Jeremy Maclin a constant threat (88 recs.; 14 combined TDs),
Mizzou’s zone-blitz defense—still not among the speediest—will be repeatedly
and severely challenged by Oklahoma’s big-play offense (53.3 ppg to lead the
country), which has lost only 9 TOs all season, fewest in the nation. Both teams
possess excellent TEs (MU’s Chase Coffman 79 recs., 9 TDs; OU’s Jermaine
Gresham 50 recs., 12 TDs), but Gresham strikes for big plays, while Coffman
is overcoming a recent foot injury. TV—ABC
(07-OKLA. 41-Mo. 31...M.24-21 O.33/118 M.30/57 M.38/49/3/361 O.24/34/0/266 O.2 M.1)
(07-Okla. 38-MO. 17...M.23-19 O.40/166 M.32/98 M.23/39/1/219 O.18/26/0/209 O.0 M.0)
(07-OK. -12 41-31, Ok. -3 38-17 (at S.A.) 06-Ok. +1' 26-10...SR: Okla. 65-23-5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">THE GOLDSHEET
NFL

MINNESOTA by 24 over Detroit
CAROLINA by 16 over Tampa Bay (Monday night)
OVER THE TOTAL in the N.Y. Jets-San Francisco game


Minnesota 37 - DETROIT 13—Lions’ last decent chance to notch a win
TY? Games at Indy, vs. N.O., and at G.B. follow. Too bad the Vikes are 12-1
SU the last 13 meetings. Maybe the commissioner will help by suspending
Minny’s “Williams Brothers” DTs and DE Jared Allen (11 sacks). But even that
might not be enough for Detroit, which is 0-6 vs. the spread at home TY and
must deal with Adrian Peterson (1131 YR) after giving up nearly 300 YR to the
Titans on Thanksgiving. Detroit “over” last five due to its overwhelmed defense
(only two ints. TY!).
(08-MINN. 12-Det. 10...M.18-8 M.31/135 D.24/100 M.18/33/1/257 D.12/21/0/112 M.2 D.1)
(07-DET. 20-Minn. 17 (OT)...D.29-17 M.33/123 D.21/56 D.35/56/3/359 M.20/37/4/190 D.2 M.1)
(07-MINN. 42-Det. 10...M.29-14 M.39/216 D.7/23 D.27/36/1/231 M.19/26/1/227 M.0 D.0)
(08-MINN. -13 12-10; 07-DETROIT -3 20-17 (OT), MINN. -4' 42-10...SR: Minnesota 62-30-2)


OVER THE TOTAL SAN FRANCISCO 28 - N.Y. Jets 26—Niners now
a respectable 2-3 SU & 3-2 vs. the spread under Mike Singletary, and the Jets’
defense was exposed a bit last week by the Broncs. That N.Y. unit can play
better, but Brett Favre not helping matters with his 14 interceptions. S.F.’s
secondary among the more experienced in the league. Will take note, however,
that 49ers are “over” 4 of the 5 games under Singletary; Jets “over” last six TY!
(04-NY JETS -10 22-14...SR: San Francisco 8-2)



*CAROLINA 26 - Tampa Bay 10—Must expect home-loving Carolina
(6-1-2 vs. spread last 9 in Charlotte) to run the ball much better in rematch after
being out-rushed 189-99 in first meeting in T.B. Oct. 12. RBs DeAngelo
Williams (955 YR) & Jonathan Stewart (586) should own the day on the ground
in this battle for NFC South supremacy, and Steve Smith is the top WR on the
field. DE Julius Peppers (11 sacks) is back to being a primetime intimidator,
and the Bucs’ wideouts are not too scary vs. Panthers’ experienced press
coverage. CABLE TV—ESPN





THURSDAY, DECEMBER 4
*SAN DIEGO 24 - Oakland 17—S.D. has dominated the series recently,
winning & covering the last 3, and covering 10 of the last 11. Can the Chargers
extend that domination in a disappointing season in which they seem bent on
playing just about everyone to the wire? Note that 3 of their 4 wins, however,
have been decided by double figures. But the S.D. defense is way down, and
LaDainian Tomlinson (only 3.7 ypc) misses old FB Lorenzo Neal, while the
slightly improving Raiders are 4-2 vs. spread on the road. TV—NFL NETWORK
(08-S. Diego 28-OAK. 18...S.18-15 S.30/141 O.23/72 O.22/37/1/251 S.14/25/2/154 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. DIEGO 28-Oak. 14...18-18 S.32/206 O.23/49 O.24/37/2/193 S.14/21/1/156 S.0 O.1)
(07-S. Diego 30-OAK. 17...O.17-15 O.29/122 S.33/120 O.23/31/1/194 S.15/27/0/133 S.1 O.3)
(08-San Diego -8 28-18; 07-SAN DIEGO -9' 28-14, San Diego -8' 30-17...SR: Oakland 55-41-2)
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 7
INDIANAPOLIS 27 - Cincinnati 17—Colts are back to their winning ways (5
straight), but not exactly leaving much room for error (all by 6 or fewer). Indy
offense felt the absence of key C Jeff Saturday in last week’s late escape at
Cleveland (only Colt TD on fumble return). Expect a more characteristic effort
from Peyton Manning after his first TD-less game since ‘03! But huge favorites
usually not a high-percentage play in the NFL, and Indy only has one victory by
more than six points TY!
(2008 Preseason: Cincinnati +3 beat Indianapolis 27-7 at Indianapolis)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -3' 34-16...SR: Indianapolis 15-8)
CHICAGO 30 - Jacksonville 20—Bears (including their coaching staff with its
decisions) seemed to be determined to play a game of “giveaway” last week at
Minnesota. But Chicago ought to be able to get Matt Forte (1005 YR) going
against the Jags’ defense. More importantly, the Bears’ penetrating front four
seems a good match vs. Jacksonville’s injury-thinned OL. Even in sometimes
windy & wintry Chicago, Bears have a knack of going “over” at home (4-1 TY;
19-5 last 24).
(04-JACKSONVILLE -7 22-3...SR: EVEN 2-2)
GREEN BAY 30 - Houston 28—G.B. defense appears to have flown south for
the winter, with the Packers having yielded 86 points in their last two games.
Houston (allowing 26.6 ppg TY prior to its Monday game vs. Jacksonville)
hardly much better. So, with all the quality receivers in this game, orchestrated
by the fertile offensive minds of Mike McCarthy & Gary Kubiak, prefer to look
“over,” with the Pack “over” 22-8 last 30; Texans “over” 22-9-1 prior to their
Monday nighter.
(04-Green Bay -3 16-13...SR: Green Bay 1-0)
TENNESSEE 28 - Cleveland 10—Browns have covered six straight as a dog.
But with No. 3 QB Ken Dorsey being forced into action (Derek Anderson’s knee
injury appears to have finished him for the season), and with the growing
likelihood of a HC/GM housecleaning in Cleveland after the season, we’re
reluctant to be enticed by the big pointspread vs. 11-1 Tennessee, even though the
Titans are a “low variance” team. Browns 28th vs. the rush through 11 games.
(05-CLE. -2' 20-14...SR: Cleveland 33-27)



BALTIMORE 19 - Washington 9—Washington’s power outage now acute,
with recent offensive blackout (only 4 TDs last 4 games; banged-up Clinton
Portis just 22 YR last week vs. NYG) jeopardizing the Skins’ once-buoyant
playoff hopes. Things don’t figure to get easier vs. Ray Lewis and the Baltimore
defense that hasn’t allowed more than 13 points in any of its first five games at
M&T Bank Stadium TY! Meanwhile, Raven rookie QB Joe Flacco (280 YP, 2
more TDP, 0 ints. last week at Cincy) continues to soar. “Totals” alert–Skins
“under” 7-0-1 last 8.
(04-Baltimore -1 17-10...SR: Baltimore 2-1)



N.Y. GIANTS 27 - Philadelphia 13—Props to Donovan McNabb for silencing
the vultures on 610 WIP radio with four 4 TD passes Thanksgiving night vs.
Arizona. But the pattern has been mostly inconsistent for McNabb (6 TDP vs.
7 “picks” the five previous games). Meanwhile, Philly’s blitz-happy defensive
style not as likely to work vs. ultra-balanced N.Y. offense that pounded Eagles
for 219 YR in Giants’ 5-point Nov. 9 win at the Linc. Who needs Plaxico Burress
(Eli Manning’s first 300-yard game of year last week without him)? G-Men 7-0
SU and vs. line on latest uptick!
(08-Nyg 36-PHIL. 31...N.26-17 N.45/219 P.21/106 P.17/36/1/194 N.17/31/1/182 N.1 P.1)
(07-NYG 16-Phil. 3...16-16 P.23/114 N.27/83 N.14/26/1/129 P.15/31/0/76 N.0 P.1)
(07-Nyg 16-PHIL. 13...P.18-15 P.28/141 N.27/111 N.17/31/0/207 P.20/31/0/165 N.2 P.1)
(08-Giants +3 36-31; 07-GIANTS +2' 16-3, Giants +3 16-13...SR: NY Giants 81-67-2)



NEW ORLEANS 31 - Atlanta 20—Payback time for Saints, who lost 34-20
four weeks ago in Atlanta despite gaining 521 yards. Drew Brees suffered three
ints. in that game, something unlikely to re-occur in the rematch on N.O.’s
friendly home turf, where Saints are a heavenly 4-1 vs. the spread TY. RB
Pierre Thomas has emerged as a solid weapon; now Reggie Bush is back.
Brees (3870 YP) is after Marino’s single-season yardage record. Relentless
N.O. is “over” 7-4-1 TY and 20-10-1 last 31.
(08-ATL. 34-N. Orl. 20...N.25-18 A.36/113 N.17/105 N.31/58/3/414 A.16/23/0/248 A.0 N.0)
(07-N. ORL. 22-Atl. 16...A.18-14 N.22/91 A.24/75 A.27/41/0/259 N.22/34/1/219 N.0 A.0)
(07-N. Orl. 34-ATL. 14...N.23-13 N.30/145 A.16/37 N.28/41/0/328 A.23/40/1/286 N.1 A.0)
(08-ATLANTA -1 34-20; 07-N. ORLEANS -8 22-16, N. Orleans -3' 34-14...SR: Atlanta 45-34)




Buffalo 24 - Miami 19—With Trent Edwards suffering a strained groin last
week, it might be veteran J.P. Losman (11 of 17 off the bench vs. S.F.) for the
Bills in this game, being played at Toronto’s Rogers Centre, the indoor home of
the American League Blue Jays. Bills (350 total yards) played semi-well last
week vs. S.F., only to fall victim to two missed FGs and a fumble. Another loss
could finish their playoff hopes. Dolphin defense is likely to provide just enough
openings. (at Toronto, Canada)
(08-MIAMI 25-Buf. 16...19-19 B.27/119 M.27/52 M.22/30/0/306 B.21/35/1/220 M.1 B.3)
(07-Buf. 13-MIAMI 10...15-15 M.38/143 B.25/63 B.12/23/1/151 M.16/29/0/126 B.0 M.0)
(07-BUF. 38-Miami 17...B.20-18 B.40/224 M.21/65 M.23/44/2/220 B.11/23/0/165 B.1 M.3)
(08-MIAMI +1 25-16; 07-Buffalo -2' 13-10, BUFFALO -7 38-17...SR: Miami 51-37-1)



DENVER 30 - Kansas City 26—Can’t lay points with Denver team whose
defense is still hurting and which has failed to cover its last 5 at home. The
underdog is now 9-1 in the Broncs’ last 10 games, while Chiefs 10-4 vs. the
number their last 14 away. Moreover, the development of QB Tyler Thigpen &
the return of RB Larry Johnson are providing K.C. with a fairly-competent
offense. Eleven of the last 14 in the series have gone “over.”
(08-K. CITY 33-Denver 19...D.22-17 K.33/213 D.22/94 D.29/49/2/352 K.21/28/0/157 K.1 D.2)
(07-Denver 27-K. CITY 11...K.19-18 D.29/141 K.22/67 K.23/45/3/217 D.17/31/1/186 D.0 K.1)
(07-DENVER 41-K. City 7...D.23-7 D.34/215 K.17/16 D.20/27/0/238 K.15/29/1/113 D.0 K.2)
(08-K. CITY +9' 33-19; 07-Denver +3 27-11, DENVER -7 41-7...SR: Kansas City 53-44)



ARIZONA 37 - St. Louis 16—Maybe the return of RB Steven Jackson signals
more competitive efforts forthcoming from St. Louis, which at least “had a look”
at a possible victory in the second half last week for first time in more than a
month. Then again, maybe it doesn’t. Jackson was available when Arizona
stomped the Rams by 21 at the Edward Jones Dome Nov. 2. Marc Bulger had
3 more picks last week, and St. Louis hasn’t scored more than 16 in its last 6
games. Potent Cards need one more win to clinch NFC West.
(08-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 13...A.24-13 A.33/177 S.20/61 A.23/34/0/333 S.16/33/2/170 A.0 S.1)
(07-Ariz. 34-ST. LOU. 31...24-24 S.23/123 A.31/102 A.21/41/2/281 S.24/43/3/252 A.0 S.0)
(07-ARIZ. 48-St. Lou. 19...A.25-13 A.31/123 S.24/75 A.23/39/2/300 S.14/30/3/159 A.0 S.0)
(08-Arizona -3 34-13; 07-Arizona -3' 34-31, ARIZONA -6 48-19...SR: St. Louis 31-27-2





Dallas 24 - PITTSBURGH 22—Cowboys are a different team with Tony Romo
back at the controls, with his anticipation, quick release, and mobility boosting
the Dallas aerial game to one of the best in the league. Cowboys now control
their own fate to make the playoffs, and the early reports on the Thanksgiving
injuries of RB Marion Barber (toe) and LB DeMarcus Ware (knee; 15 sacks TY)
are both positive. With Steelers also back in a groove, would tend to look “over”
(Pittsburgh 4-2 “over” at home TY; 45-16-1 last 62).
(04-Pittsburgh +3 24-20...SR: Dallas 15-14)




*New England 24 - SEATTLE 16—Even though Seattle is a well-coached
team laced with playoff veterans, it continues to suffer key losses, the latest
being starting C Chris Spencer & fiery RG Mike Wahle (check status of both).
Thus, QB Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee) continues to take a pounding (7 sacks
on Thanksgiving). N.E. QB Matt Cassel (praised as a quick study) got a lesson
from the Steelers’ zone blitz week ago. Can he deal with the NFL’s noisiest
field? Note that Seattle has played five straight “unders.” TV—NBC
(04-NEW ENGLAND -4 30-20...SR: EVEN 7-7)

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST SPORTS’ POWER PLAYS

UC and the home team are both 3-1 SU in this series. LY Pitt led 31-14 in the 4Q but ended
up losing in 2 OTs 46-45. PP calls for Pitt to pull the outright upset (+3) but gives UC a 332-253
ydg edge. We agree with the pts and like Pitt.
4* PITTSBURGH (+) 24 CONNECTICUT 21


Cal is playing to secure a trip to the Holiday Bowl while Washington is playing to try to avoid
an 0-12 season in Willingham’s fi nal game. PP calls for Cal to shutout the Huskies 42-0 (line
33’) and gives the Bears a 447-178 yd edge and we agree.
4* CALIFORNIA 42 WASHINGTON 0


Troy is 2-6 SU all-time vs ASU, but their 6 losses have come by a combined 20 pts. If ULL
loses on Wednesday night, Troy can clinch the Sun Belt Title with a win here and PP calls for
them to win by 18 with a 427-283 yd edge.
4* TROY 32 ARKANSAS ST 14


UF is 0-5-2 ATS in this series (3-4 SU) since ‘94 and these 2 teams have met 5 times for
the SEC Title with UF holding a 3-2 advantage. PP says UF will win by 17 (line 10) with a
415-330 yd edge. Meyer’s team has the talent and speed edge, and will get a trip to their 2nd
BCS Title gm in the L3Y with a solid win here.
4* FLORIDA 38 ALABAMA 21


UC is making their fi rst trip back to Hawaii since ‘02 where a huge brawl broke out and UH
won 20-19 with the help of some controversial calls. PP says that UC will win by 11 (line 7’)
with the ydg forecast almost even (UC 332-325). UC has a huge special teams edge and we
like the Bearcats in this one.
3* CINCINNATI 28 HAWAII 17


This is a rematch of LY’s B12 Title game which OU won 38-17 (-3) and OU will be looking to
make a statement since many believe they shouldn’t be playing for the B12 Title over Texas. PP
calls for OU to win by 18 (line 16’) with a 550-425 yd edge. OU is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the
B12 Title gm and will want to leave no doubt here that they belong in the BCS Title game.
3* OKLAHOMA 53 MISSOURI 35


WK is 2-1 SU in this series and FIU is off a tough OT loss to their rival FAU which cost them
a chance at a non-losing season. PP says FIU will win by 9 (line 7) with a 381-289 yd edge.
1* FIU 31 WKU 22